Will Ticket Splitters Deliver Senate to Democrats
Let’s take a look at battleground states with competitive senate races. This blog has looked closely at Joe Biden’s significant advantage in his quest to secure 270 Electoral College votes. The former Vice President has many battleground state paths to 270. President Trump has a very narrow path and is tied or trailing in battleground states that he can’t afford to lose.
Quick Peek at Trump Campaign Strategies
Last week, after being outspent by a 3–1 ratio, the Trump campaign pulled its Michigan ad buy to re-direct to states like Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina. Campaigns can spin tales as to why they make ad expenditure choices, but it is never a good sign when you give up going toe to toe in a crucial battleground state. Trump’s America First Super-PAC also pulled out of Michigan. With Michigan leaning Biden’s way, Trump can barely afford to lose one more battleground state and have any chance at reaching 270.
Trump’s new campaign manager Bill Stepien told reporters on July 24 “We only need to win either Wisconsin or Michigan or Pennsylvania to win this thing again.” Stepien also stopped airing all Trump campaign ads last week to re-assess message and prioritize states with early voting. It’s shocking to hear that the formidable campaign and its two super PACS, having spent $1 billion since 2017, just figured out that voting starts next month. The Brad Parscale error is over but the carnage continues.
Our July 16th blog Trump’s Electoral Wall is Falling Down predicted that Trump’s ceiling is 270 (with Biden’s floor at 269). We wrote that Trump would cede Michigan and Pennsylvania to Biden, and go all out for must win Wisconsin.
Trump hits 270 exactly, if he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania and then runs the table on every state he carried in 2016, including Wisconsin (Biden + 5, 48–43), Maine’s 2nd CD (Biden +3, 45–42) and Nebraska’s 2nd CD (Biden +7, 51–44). However, Biden hits 270 if he loses Wisconsin, but carries Hillary Clinton’s 232 votes plus Michigan and Pennsylvania and both 2nd Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska. Shhh, don’t tell Stepien.
Ticket Splitting Senate Battlegrounds
While a growing rarity in today’s highly partisan electorate, ticket splitters will hold outsized influence in competitive Senate races. Ticket splitters may hold the key for both a Biden victory and for Democrats to regain a Senate majority. If Biden hits 270, the Democrats will only need a net gain of 3 seats to flip the Senate. In some of these competitive Senate races, Biden carries coattails. But in other states, the Democratic Senate candidates are over performing Biden.
There are fewer undecided voters in the Presidential battlegrounds, generally ranging from 5–10%. The Senate races show undecided voters ranging from 8–20%. Expect ticket splitting voters to emerge from undecided voters in Senate races. Democrats, who are on the offensive in a change election, are positioned to take advantage of ticket splitting voters in states that matter.
Biden is leading in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 — Colorado and Maine. Biden also has leads in states Trump can’t afford to lose — North Carolina and Arizona. The Democratic Senate challengers have leads in all four states with Republican incumbents — Colorado, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina. Ticket splitting could continue to give Democrats the edge and provide a path to 270 for Biden and net plus 3 for Senate Democrats.
Other Senate battleground states like Iowa, Georgia, South Carolina and Montana are not must wins for Biden, but ticket splitters could add to a Democratic Senate majority.
Top Biden Priorities: Biden is Leading Trump & Democratic Senate Candidates are Performing Better than Biden
Michigan — Both Biden and Democratic Senator Gary Peters are performing well, with Biden up 8 points, 49.2–41.2 (RCP average) and Peters doing slightly better at plus 9.4 points, 48–38.6 over challenger John James. Ticket splitting is almost non-existent, Biden and Peters are poised to win the state.
Current standings: Leaning Biden — 16 Electoral College votes; Leaning Peters, Democratic Senate hold. Ticket splitter difference (Between Biden and Peters): Peters +1.3.
North Carolina — Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham has increased his lead over Republican Senator Thom Tillis to 9.5 points, 49.5–39.8. Biden has made North Carolina a priority and invested heavily in ads. Biden has maintained a small, steady lead and is up 4.5 points, 49.5–45 (RCP average). There are more undecided voters in the Senate race, but Cunningham and Biden are close to 50%. In what may be very close elections, North Carolina ticket splitters could end up delivering a major blow to Trump and Republican control of the Senate.
Current standings: Toss up Presidential with 15 Electoral College votes; Leaning Cunningham +1 Net gain for Dems in Senate. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Cunningham): Cunningham +5.
Arizona — Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has held a consistent lead over appointed Republican Senator Martha McSally. His RCP average lead is 6.8 points, 49.6–42.8. Arizona is one of Biden’s six targeted states and he has maintained a narrow lead, up 3.2 points over Trump, 48.2–45.
Current standings: Toss up Presidential with 11 Electoral College votes; Leaning Kelly — +1 Net gain for Dems in Senate. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Kelly): Kelly +3.6.
Biden and Democratic Senate Candidates are Leading. Biden Performing Better than Democratic Candidates
Colorado — Colorado continues to give Biden a solid 13 point lead in the last two polls 53–40. His strength will only help Democrat John Hickenlooper’s challenge to Republican Senator Cory Gardner. The last two polls have Hickenlooper up 8.5 points (49.5–41).
Current standings: 9 Electoral Votes for Biden; Leaning Hickenlooper, Net +1 Senate Seat for Dems. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Hickenlooper): Biden +4.5 points.
Maine — The last two polls in Maine give Biden a solid 11.5 point lead (51.5–40) including up 3 points, 45–42 in the competitive 2nd Congressional District. Maine awards 1 Electoral Votes each by Congressional District and 2 Electoral Votes for winning the state. In 2016, Trump carried the 2nd CD, thus winning one of Maine’s 4 Electoral College votes. Democrat Sara Gideon is up 4.5 points over Republican Senator Susan Collins in last two poll average 45–40.5. Biden could provide coattails for Gideon in a race that could decide control of the Senate.
Current standings: 4 Electoral Votes for Biden — 1 Electoral College Net pickup vote from 2016 election; Slight lean to Gideon and a Net +1 Senate seat for Dems. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Gideon): Biden +7 points.
Tossup for President and Biden Performing Better than Democratic Senate Candidates
Georgia — Trump has a slight 1.6% edge over Biden 47.2–45.6 in the RCP polling average while Republican Senator David Perdue holds a 4.2 point lead 47–42.8 over Democrat Jon Ossoff. Both races are close. Biden and Ossoff have narrowed the gap. Biden does not need to win Georgia’s 16 votes to get to 270, nor do the Democrats need the Senate race to take back the Senate. Any Democratic victory would be devastating to Republicans.
Current standings: Tossup for Georgia’s 16 Electoral votes; Senate leans Republican, Hold. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Ossoff): Biden +2.6 points.
Texas — For President, Texas is a dead heat. Biden is up 0.2 points 45.5–45.3 in RCP average plus July 28 Morning Consult poll. Republican Senator John Cornyn has a strong 10 point lead over Democrat MJ Hegar 44.8–34.8. Texas’ 38 Electoral Vote are up for grabs. A Biden victory would seal Trump’s fate.
Current standings: Tossup for Texas’ 38 Electoral votes; Senate likely Republican, Hold. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Hegar): Biden +10.2 points.
Alaska — Yes Alaska but with an asterisk — There are no Democrats running for Senate and the House in Alaska. But the Independents challenging Republican incumbents are backed by Democrats. Polls show Trump up just 3.5 points over Biden, 49.5–46. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan has a 9 point lead over Independent Al Gross 46–37, with 17% undecided. Biden does not need Alaska’s 3 Electoral votes but Trump does. If undecided ticket splitters break to Gross the Republicans would be hard pressed to hold the Senate.
Current standings: Leaning Trump; Leaning Republican Senate hold. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Gross): Biden +5.5.
Tossup for President/Senate & Democratic Senate Candidates are Performing Better than Biden
Iowa — It’s a dead heat in Iowa for President and Senate. Recent polls at FiveThirtyEight have Trump up up only 0.7 points, 46.5–45.8. Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is up 2.4 points, 46.6–44.2 over Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Trump has been up on the air with attack ads, while Biden has held his fire. Ticket splitters could give Iowa to Trump while electing Greenfield to the Senate. However, if Biden spends in Iowa, he is positioned to at least make Trump spend more for a state he can’t lose. The bonus for Biden is the Omaha media market broadcasts into Western Iowa. Omaha is home to Nebraska’s 2nd CD, which polls have Biden leading and in position to win one of Nebraska’s 5 Electoral votes — which would complicate Trump campaign manager Stepien’s math to 270.
Current standings: Tossup for President and Senate. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Greenfield): Greenfield +3.1
Trump is Leading & Democratic Senate Candidates are Performing Better than Biden
Montana — Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, down 0.6 points 46.2–45.6, is essentially tied with Republican Senator Steve Daines according to an average of polls at FiveThirtyEight. Trump is up 8.8 points 51.2–42.3. Ticket splitters are clearly breaking Bullock’s way. The remaining 8% of undecided voters will be critical in the senate race between two well-known politicians.
Current standings: Leans Trump for President; Tossup for Senate. Ticket Splitter difference (between Biden and Bullock): Bullock +8.2
South Carolina — Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison is in a horse race with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in FiveThirtyEight’s posted polls. Graham is up 3.2 points, 45.5–42.3. Harrison has raised a staggering amount of money and will stay competitive. Trump is up 6.5 points, 50.5–44. Harrison could benefit from ticket splitters.
Current standings: Leans Trump for President; Senate-slight lean to Graham with 12% undecided. Ticket splitter difference (between Biden and Harrison): Harrison +3.3
Alabama — Democratic Senator Doug Jones trails Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville in FiveThirtyEight’s polls by 6 points, down 47–41. Trump is up 14 points, 54–40. Ticket splitters, college educated white women, African Americans and early voting could be enough for Jones to eke out a win.
Current standings: Solid Trump; Leans Republican in Senate, Net -1 Loss for Dems. Ticket Splitter difference (between Biden and Jones): Jones +8.
Kansas — All really depends on who gets the Republican nomination for the open Senate seat in Kansas’ August 4th primary. If Kris Kobach wins the primary, Democrat Senate candidate Barbara Bollier, a former Republican, has a chance to become the first Democrat elected from Kansas in 90 years. Trump is up 12 points. Bollier and Kobach are locked up at 42.5.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at award-winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
