Will New Hampshire Winnow Down the Field?
With the first couple dozen votes already counted in New Hampshire one thing is certain, we will know the results in New Hampshire before the count is settled in Iowa. Iowa had a reporting problem but on caucus night each precinct elected delegates to go to the next stage in the national convention delegate process.
It’s fairly certain that Bernie Sanders will win tonight with roughly a quarter of the vote. He will go on to Nevada, where polling is a month old, as the odds on favorite to win in part based on his strong support from Latinx voters. But with a crowded field, he’ll likely get high 20s to low 30s percent of the Nevada caucus vote. Bernie’s challenge will be to pick up support as other candidates drop out in what will eventually become a four and then three person race with Mike Bloomberg, and his self-financed campaign going the distance. Bernie will have the money and the passionate followers to campaign into the National Convention.
With Pete Buttigieg expected to finish second, and anything less than second would be seen as a problem, he needs to avoid falling off the podium in Nevada, South Carolina and most of the Super Tuesday states. Iowa and New Hampshire were perfect states for Mayor Pete, but on Super Tuesday he’ll not only have to face whomever remains of his current opponents, he’ll have to compete with a big city Mayor with a big time campaign operation. If Buttigieg starts to falter, will his supporters continue to financially sustain his campaign.
Joe Biden threw in the towel in New Hampshire and risks finishing fifth, or even sixth to Bloomberg as a New Hampshire write in if the New Hampshire outpost results provide any insight. A fifth or worst showing bodes poorly for Biden in Nevada’s caucuses where he could finish out of the top three again. If Biden’s African-American support slips in Nevada, there will be little firewall left in South Carolina, and even less in his campaign coffers. Biden has never run a competitive race for President, why does anyone expect it to be any different once votes get cast. If Biden craters or barely ekes out a win in South Carolina, the question is where will his older African-American base migrate and will there be a significant difference in second choice preferences based on age and gender of this base?
It’s likely that Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar will be in a close third and fourth place finish tonight, with spins that come from each finish. Warren has been holding onto a loyal, if not yet growing base. It’s been said that Warren has worked herself into a corner with her plan and messaging. But she’s agile and her “electable and unifying” pivot may give her enough space stay in the race after Super Tuesday. Is Warren best positioned to pick up a large portion of Biden’s African-American supporters if they start looking elsewhere? Polling shows she continues to perform well as a second choice, but you have to be gaining in the field to be a viable second choice. Warren will need some electoral boost to raise enough funds to remain competitive on Super Tuesday.
Klobuchar, has momentum on her side, in part because she was mired in mid-single digits for so long. She excels at debates, and keeps getting better, but still has trouble sharing an inspirational vision in larger rallies. Klobuchar still lags in fundraising, although a third place finish would help her increase online contributions. Her best shot at gaining support is peeling off Buttigieg’s soft supporters and Biden’s white working class base.
While Tom Steyer will finish back in the pack in New Hampshire, he has invested heavily in Nevada and South Carolina, and the most recent February 2nd East Carolina University poll, show Steyer in second place with a path to eat into Biden’s base of support, including African-Americans. Steyer could be the one to deliver a powerful blow to Biden, after Buttigieg and Klobuchar started the bleeding in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Bloomberg is not even competing in the early states. His campaign has been playing its cards smartly, expecting that the large field would expend limited resources and leave Biden, the perceived frontrunner and Bloomberg’s main competitor, limping with little momentum and even fewer financial resources. Bloomberg is poised to overpower his more centrist opponents on Super Tuesday and beyond.
Easy money is on Sanders and Bloomberg, two older Jewish men, to be two of the last three candidates standing. As other candidates drop out, second and third choices will be critical. Sanders will pick up some votes as will Bloomberg, but expect the majority to migrate to the other top finishers tonight — Buttigieg, Warren or Klobuchar. Of these three, expect one of the two women left to be the first to drop out and the other woman to eventually join Sanders and Bloomberg as the final three candidates in the race for the nomination. Will Klobuchar in the same lane as Bloomberg or Warren in her own lane be the one to make the cut?
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at the Pollie Award Winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
