Warren Helps Biden Find His Mojo

Mike Bloomberg’s $500 million campaign expenditures was contingent on Joe Biden faltering. Up until the Nevada debate, Bloomberg’s plan was perfect. Biden finished 4th and 5thin Iowa and New Hampshire while Bloomberg bet on Super Tuesday and owned the airwaves.

Then came the Elizabeth Warren evisceration of Bloomberg in the Nevada debate, followed up with a continued barrage on the South Carolina debate stage. Going hard on a candidate on a crowded debate stage can have unintended consequences. Warren raised millions after the debate, but it didn’t benefit her in polling. Her performance did throw a lifeline to Biden.

Biden finished second in Nevada and won his first delegates while Warren failed to reach viability. Biden then turned in by far his best debate performance, in part aided by a vocally engaged South Carolina crowd. His attacks caused him no harm and showed he was a fighter.

Biden’s 48% showing slightly beat his highest South Carolina polling numbers since entering the race. On Primary Day, he surged 8 points over his Real Clear Politics February 27 average. Bernie Sanders with 19.9% actually lost ground and fell 4.4 points, from his 24.3% Real Clear Politics (2–27) average. Was this drop a blip in polling or does it signify challenges on Super Tuesday.

Tom Steyer, who up until the Nevada debate, was viable in South Carolina at 15.5%. His massive media buy threatened to pull votes from Biden’s African-American base. Steyer would leave the race after falling to 11%, with Biden the clear beneficiary of Steyer’s plunge. Pete Buttigieg down 3% and Amy Klobuchar off 2.5% would also underperform the most recent polling and cede votes to Biden. The only other candidate to gain ground was Warren who registered a tiny 1 percent rise.

Super Tuesday Will Shrink the Field

The field will obviously shrink as Klobuchar is only viable in her home state of Minnesota and Buttigieg is on the bubble of viability in a few states. Warren is in a battle with Sanders to win her home state of Massachusetts, but is competitive for viability in Texas, North Carolina, Utah and likely viable in Colorado and California where she only trails Sanders.

As of February 29, the only two viable candidates in California were Sanders and Warren with Bloomberg and Biden in striking distance. Sanders enjoys a 2–1 lead over Warren. While candidates will no doubt reach viability in some of California’s 53 Congressional districts, statewide viability means winning a good portion of the state’s 416 delegates, especially if only two or three candidates achieve viability.

Expect Biden to do well in Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas. Sanders is leading in Texas and Virginia, with Biden and Bloomberg statistically tied in those states.

Warren’s pummeling of Bloomberg in the Nevada debate was felt in North Carolina. Polls in the Tar Heel State showed remarkable mirror images: Biden gained ground and now leads while Bloomberg fell. It’s likely the debate performance benefitted Biden. Biden was not on the air with any ads in North Carolina while Bloomberg controlled the every facet of advertising. If Biden bests Bloomberg in a majority of Super Tuesday states, Bloomberg could be in serious electoral trouble. But Bloomberg vows to stay in the race, a luxury only he can afford.

Biden should join Sanders and Bloomberg moving on after Super Tuesday. If Warren can finish second in California and Colorado, withstand Sanders push in Massachusetts, and achieve viability in a few more states, she’ll stay in the race. She might just end up with the third most delegates.

Where Is Bernie’s Wave of New Voters?

It’s true, Sanders base is under age 45, including people of color, Latinos and non-college educated voters. His campaign claims his general election strength will be his ability to bring out new, young infrequent and first-time voters. So far turnout in the first four states has not met those claims of a wave of new voters. Increased turnout in Nevada was found in precincts where Buttigieg and Klobuchar did well, and not in precincts that delivered a solid win for Sanders.

I’m working on a state legislative race in Los Angeles, California Assembly District 53. This district includes downtown LA and neighborhoods just east, south and west of downtown. California State Assembly Districts are huge with roughly 500,000 residents per district. Latinos are 55% of voters and 55% are permanent absentee voters. A solid majority of voters in this district are renters. Thirty percent are ages 18–34 and 46% are under age 45. Less than 7% are Republicans.

In California, Sanders is polling at over 50% of the Latino vote and decisively winning the under 45 vote. If Bernie is going to produce a wave of new voters you would expect to see signs of it with early absentee voting in AD 53. People who have firmly decided to support a presidential candidate, can be expected to cast their votes early.

However, there is no sign of a wave in early absentee votes. To date, 12% of absentee voters have returned their ballots. Only 6% of absentee voters age 18–34 have voted, by far the largest bloc of permanent absentee voters. Voters 35–49 are only slightly better with 9% already voting. Latinos have returned only 9% of ballots. Meanwhile 27% of absentee voters over 65 have cast their ballots as have 19% of Republicans.

It appears that infrequent voters who are holding a ballot and who would be most likely to support Sanders, may not cast their vote. Traditionally, a large percentage of absentee votes are cast late. There is a chance that Sanders’ demographic base in AD 53 may still turnout.

It’s nearly impossible to build a general election wave without a surge of primary voters. A base organically grows as new supporters reach out to their communities. Without an increase in primary turnout, Bernie may need a tidal wave to get there.