TRUMP’S WOE IS LOUISIANA AND OH ATLANTA!
November 16, 2019
By Scott Adams
Atlanta Debate & Democratic Nomination’s Shifting Sands
Just before the October debate, I noted that the impeachment hearings would take up all the oxygen and leave very little impact on national polling for the Democratic nomination. For the most part, national polling has remained unchanged. But that’s not the case for Iowa and New Hampshire.
As the perceived frontrunner, Elizabeth Warren was the target at October’s debate. Attacks on her Medicare for All plan have continued. In response to questions and static polling numbers, Warren continues to adjust her health plan — how to fund and phase it in. Still, Warren remains in second place behind Joe Biden in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) national polling average.
Since the debate, the RCP average has Biden falling 3.4%, from 29.4% to 26%, Warren is down 2.6% from 23.4% to 20.8%, but has narrowed Biden’s lead from 6% to 5.2%. Meanwhile Bernie Sanders, demonstrates his core support is firm. Sanders is up since October’s debate by 2.1% to 17.7%, but still essentially unchanged from his 17% standing as the year began. Buttigieg posted the largest gain in this time period, up 2.8% to 8%.
Given the outsized attention Iowa and New Hampshire garner, the impeachment hearings have had less of a numbing effect on the electorate. There is tangible movement amongst the top four. Warren has lost ground in Iowa to Buttigieg who has surged into first. Buttigieg’s RCP Iowa average puts him at 21%, with a slight 2.2% edge over Warren 18.8%, Biden 17.6% and Sanders 17.2%. Amy Klobuchar and Kamala Harris, who see Iowa as a make or break state, trail badly at 5% and 3.6%.
New Hampshire’s RCP average shows a similarly tight race with Warren up 2.7% at 21.7% followed by Biden 19%, Sanders 18.3% and Buttigieg 13.7%. Biden has shown some staying power, remaining competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire, while posting significant leads in RCP averages in Nevada (+9%) and South Carolina (+28%). Close loses for Biden in New Hampshire and Iowa could likely propel him to strong finishes in Nevada and South Carolina. Biden’s weakness is fundraising, where he badly trails his three main challengers as we enter the cash burning stage where lots of new fuel is required.
For Warren, Biden and Buttigieg, the stakes in this week’s Democratic debate in Atlanta could not be higher. Sanders will retain his core supporters and likely hit Warren for her two-phased plan for Medicare for All. Warren needs to pivot from defense on her health plan and take a few shots at Biden, to block his recovery in the Iowa and New Hampshire, and Buttigieg, to stop his early state surge. Given the Atlanta debate’s pre-Thanksgiving timing, and the dreaded holiday political table talk, the ground for Warren, Biden and Buttigieg could shift decisively in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Klobuchar and Harris have little to lose, and everything to gain by taking risks and attacking, though they may have too many candidates above them to narrow their aim. Expect them to go after Buttigieg, who is driving away in their lane.
Louisiana’s African-American Turnout Surge for Gov. Bel Edwards’ Re-Election
For anyone who thinks African-American voters are not motivated to send a message to Donald Trump and back a moderate Democrat for Louisiana governor, the facts are not with you. How much would Trump’s repeated visits to Louisiana, including on election eve, impact the close race? Would Trump increase his base supporters’ turnout? Trump failed on two ends; his base did not come out while his presence fueled a surge in African-American voters.
Bel Edwards was a popular Governor who had strong support from African-Americans. But the question remained on whether the Governor’s popularity would translate into turnout? The answer was a decisive yes. African-American early voting was up 6 points to 31% compared to the jungle primary where Edwards was barely forced into a runoff. In black and white terms, with African-American turnout over 30%, Edwards would only need roughly 20% of the white vote to win. The three largest parishes with African American voters, Orleans, East Baton Rouge and Caddo (Shreveport) all saw significantly larger turnout, up between 15–30% from the jungle primary, while turnout in the rest of the state’s parishes, Trump country, was lower.
Edwards also improved his numbers from his first race for Governor in urban/suburban parishes like Jefferson, just outside New Orleans, where he won 57% of the vote, up from 51% in 2015 (Hillary Clinton won just 41% in Jefferson Parish).
Edwards would win by 2.6% or 40,000 votes.
Really Bad News for Trump in a Very Very Very Bad Week for the President
Rispone was crushed in heavily African-American precincts where Edwards often received more than 99% of the vote. These precincts form the hard to find base of the newly launched “Black Voices for Trump” gimmick. Parish wide, New Orleans broke 90–10% for Edwards, delivering a net gain of 100,000 votes.
If these African American turnout results are replicated in 2020, the eventual Democratic nominee is well positioned to win key electoral college states and expand the map. This is good news in the rust belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Milwaukee and it puts North Carolina and Georgia solidly in play.
African-American turnout, and a shift in suburban votes are also good news for Alabama US Senator Doug Jones, whose victory was fueled by African American women. He’ll need similar African American turnout and win college educated suburban whites, particularly women.
Louisiana’s Jaw Dropping Predominantly African American Precinct Results.
Orleans Parish — New Orleans (Ward# — Precinct#: Edwards — Rispone).
2–7: 262–1; 5–5: 166–1; 6–7: 193–1; 7–23: 462–6; 7–21: 287–1;
7–20: 338–2; 7–26: 295–3; 7–27: 171–2; 8–4: 153–0; 8–13: 142–1;
9–33: 326–2;
9–31A: 252–0; 9–42C: 318–2; 9–44B: 284–3; 9–42O: 233–4; 11–13: 156–0; 11–12: 187–2; 11–14: 324–1; 12–13: 126–1.
Jefferson Parish — Suburban New Orleans (Precinct#: Edwards — Rispone)
P 104: 345–3; P 153: 488–4.
East Baton Rouge Parish (Ward# — Precinct#: Edwards — Rispone)
1–010: 395–3; 1–014: 656–5; 1–015: 592–4; 1–023: 361–6; 1–025: 444–2; 1–027: 476–4; 1–028: 370–9; 1–029: 399–8; 1–032: 519–5; 1–061: 499–8; 1–063: 424–4; 1–084: 439–6; 1–085: 730–7; 1–086: 511–7; 1–092: 311–4; 2–16: 554–4; 2–30: 748–6.
Caddo Parish — Shreveport (Precinct#: Edwards — Rispone)
003: 338–2; 050: 447–2; 051: 537–9; 052: 391–8; 054: 454–12; 074: 135–0; 111: 226–0.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director of Pollie Award Winning Green Alley Strategies — Winner of Top Prize for Direct Mail for 2018 Cycle. https://greenalleystrategies.com/
