Trump’s Offense Is His Worst Defense
I keep hearing from close friends and family who are reliable Democratic volunteers and small donors. They are worried about Donald Trump winning re-election. When I tell them he is going to lose the Electoral College decisively, I am reminded how wrong I was in 2016.
Four years and an excruciatingly deadly Covid-19 pandemic changes the political landscape. Trump only knows how to go on offense, which worked wonders as an insurgent candidate. Now he is the incumbent and with a growing list of states that he must defend. Successful leaders defend their record while advancing a vision for the future. Rather than defend, Trump blames others and takes no responsibility. Trump’s offense is his worst defense.
Shelter in place suits Joe Biden. It allows Biden to limit his cringe worthy gaffes to tolerable levels. His first public venture in 10 weeks was a simple, mask wearing Memorial Day wreath laying moment. As the Democratic nominee heads back to his basement, the media will cover the politics — and health science benefits — of mask wearing. Biden has an opportunity to lead by example. He truly does feel the pain of his fellow Americans and offers a compassionate, honest way forward.
Biden’s somber public appearance is a welcome contrast to President Trump’s narcissistic obsession with tweeting baseless attacks, praising his response to the coronavirus, ignoring the advice of infectious disease experts and calling to re-open America now. The President loves controlling the narrative and the associated images of his mask free stance.
Battleground State Polls — Biden Up, Trump Down
So how is Trump’s offensive strategy working? According to recent battleground state polling, not so well for the President.
His plan to go on the Electoral College offensive and win the blue states of Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada has gained no ground. Biden is up 5 points in a May 24th Minnesota poll (StarTribune/Mason Dixon) and up 8 points in New Hampshire (April 30, Saint Anselmo).
Biden has solid and expected leads, between 19% and 30% in California, Washington, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts and New York. He is up 12 points in Virginia (May 19-Roanoke College). Conversely, Trump’s lead in the very red states of Tennessee — up 17%, and Kentucky — -up 16%, show noticeably smaller margins than Biden’s bluest states.
Trump is in trouble in the critical rust belt states. Trump trails in Wisconsin by 3 points down 46–43% (May 12/Marquette). In Pennsylvania, Trump is down 6–8 points in three polls (May 1st Harper-R: Biden 49-Trump 43; April 23rd Susquehanna: Biden 48-Trump 42; April 22nd Fox News: Biden 50-Trump 42). Trump is losing in Michigan by 8 points (Fox News, April 22) Biden 49-Trump 41.
It gets worse for Trump as the battleground map expands. He has to play defense in a growing list of states he carried in 2016. With no experience playing defense Trump finds himself in a free fall in Arizona. He trails Biden by 7 points, 50–43% including losing Independents by 30 points and white voters by 5 points (May 19, OH Predictive). Arizona’s 11 electoral votes are won in Maricopa County, which produces over 60% of the vote. Trump won Maricopa by 3 points in 2016. He trails Biden by 13 points in the populous county, a 16 point switch from 2016.
Will Trump get a host state bounce Trump from his demand to hold a massively attended convention. Will it be held in North Carolina, Georgia or Florida? Polling shows trouble for Trump in all three states.
A May 12 Georgia poll commissioned by Republican Governor Kemp shows Biden up 47–46% over Trump. In North Carolina, it’s just as close. A May 15th poll (East Carolina University) has Trump up 3 points, 46–43% while an April 28 poll (Susquehanna) has Biden up 5 points, 50–45% in the Tar Heel state. Trump’s adopted home state of Florida offers no refuge. A May 15th Florida Atlantic University poll has Biden up 6 points, 53–43%. April polling in the Sunshine State show Biden up 3 points 46–43% (April 24/Fox) and up 4 points 46–42% (April 22/Quinnipiac).
Trump will have to spend time and resources in Texas. Utah, Ohio and Iowa. Trump’s 9 point Texas win in 2016 was achieved in a much different political time. Trump is up only 6 points, 47–41% in a May 12th Emerson poll, and up 5 points, 49–44% in an April 25th UT/Texas Tribune poll. Meanwhile an April 29th poll (PPP-D) has Biden up 1 point, 47–46%. A May 2nd Dallas Morning News poll has them tied 43–43%.
Trump’s smallest winning percentage was in Utah where he won 45% of the vote. Trump has seen a 19 point lead in Utah (April 28, Deseret News) vanish. A May 26 KUTV/Y2 Analytics survey has Trump barely up 3 points with 44% to Biden’s 41%.
Two states seen as reaches for Democrats are now competitive. Trump is up 2 points, 48–46% (PPP-D) in Iowa. Emerson’s May 12th Ohio poll has Trump up 3 points, 46–43%.
Trump in Danger of Losing by Historic Proportions
Biden’s Electoral College map continues to expand. It’s hard to imagine him losing any of the states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Suddenly, Biden has many paths to 270 Electoral College votes. We could see an incumbent routed by historic proportions. A potentially damaging defeat that will unnerve the President.
We are four months away from the beginning of early and mail in voting. States have to rapidly adapt to a surge in absentee ballot voting. It’s hard to predict how the candidates will be campaigning in two months much less what polling will reveal.
It’s a safe bet the election will be decided on leadership. Will Americans vote for a change on how to protect health and safety, create jobs and jumpstart the economy?
Change elections do not bode well for incumbents who can’t play defense.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at award-winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com
