Trump — Lost Message, Absentee Ballot Epic Failure As Votes Are Cast
By Scott Adams
Voting has begun and President Trump is still scrambling for a message. Labeling Joe Biden as “sleepy,” “a left wing socialist” and “defund police supporter” has yielded little. His gambit at playing the race card to frighten “suburban housewives” has yet to move white women suburban voters away from Biden.
It doesn’t help Trump’s outreach to suburban women to have long gun toting, white supremacist men parading through neighborhoods with Trump flags and paraphernalia. Not a good image when Trump is trying to scare voters about what America under Biden would look like.
National polls conducted after the convention continue to give Biden a steady and solid lead of 7.5 points (Five Thirty-Eight) and 7.1 points (RCP). Although some battleground states have tightened and are real tossups, others have stayed steady for Biden. To win re-election, Trump can’t afford to lose tossup states like North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Ohio. He can only lose a couple of battleground states where he has consistently trailed Biden — Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
It’s still a change election with a known and toxic Trump brand. Biden raised a staggering $364.5 million in August. Trump has yet to release his August numbers and the NY Times is reporting the campaign is in a cash crunch. Biden will have to resources to expand his play in battleground states. Trump has wasted valuable time and money since the spring pandemic shutdown. Voters’ top concerns continue to be Covid-19, the economy and race relations. Trump barely has an advantage on the economy and trails badly regarding his handling of Covid-19 and race relations.
Democrats Are Crushing Republicans in Absentee Ballot Requests
Democrats consistently outpace Republicans in requests for absentee ballots. If Election Day results show Trump even or with a narrow lead in battleground states, he will be in deep trouble. Predictably, Trump will declare victory if he is ahead on election night, even though roughly 50% of Democratic voters, who chose to cast their ballot by mail, will remain to be counted. The President is going to need significant leads in battleground states to survive the surge Biden is expected to gain in late counting absentee ballots in the days and weeks following November 3rd.
North Carolina — Absentee ballot voting started on September 4th in the Tar Heel State. Democrats are beating Republicans in absentee ballot requests by well over a 3–1 margin. The Old North State Politics Twitter account Old North State Politics documents absentee ballot requests and provides useful insight into the seventeen fold increase in requests.
Of the 643,000 requests, Democrats represent 52% of them or 337,000, compared to 31% by Independents or 201,000 and 16% by Republicans or only 104,000. At this time in 2016, only 39,000 ballots had been requested. Compared to this point in 2016, requests by Democrats are 24 times greater, Independents 19 times greater and Republicans only 8 times greater. In another good sign for Biden, Black voters requests are an astounding 29 times greater than in 2016 and represent 18% of all absentee ballot requests.
Biden, as well as Democratic Senate challenger Cal Cunningham, will have votes in the bank — to be counted over the days following November 3rd. One challenge will be making sure all these new absentee voters understand the process of accurately meeting vote-by-mail requirements to ensure their vote is counted. However, like in other states where Democrats participation in vote-by-mail is surging, the turnout operations can switch to chasing down outstanding absentee ballots, registering new voters and turnout lower propensity voters on Election Day.
Five Thirty-Eight polling average has Biden +1.6 points and RCP has Biden +0.6 points.
Florida — The 4 million requests for absentee ballots in the Sunshine State already surpass the 3 million total requested in 2016. Democrats account for nearly half of the requests — 47% — compared to 31% of requests by Republicans. If this rate holds, expect Biden’s vote to increase proportionally as absentee ballots are counted after Election Day.
Polls have tightened in Florida. The September 8th Marist/NBC poll has the race tied at 48 with Biden winning women, voters over 65 and African Americans while Trump has the edge with men, non-college whites and Latinos.
Five Thirty-Eight polling average has Biden +1.8 points and RCP has Biden +1.4 points.
Pennsylvania — By a nearly 3–1 margin, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in absentee ballot requests, 1 million to 388,000 (70% to 25%). If absentee voters stay true to their partisan roots, expect Biden to have a net gain of at least 600,000 votes. Absentee ballots will provide Biden with a significant boost to bank on when mail in votes are counted after Election Day.
Five Thirty-Eight polling average has Biden +5.8 points and RCP has Biden +3.9 points.
Ohio — The Buckeye State does not have party registration, but modeling by Target Smart shows 50% of absentee ballot requests are from Democrats compared to 38% for Republicans. Ohio was not supposed to be competitive. Trump has outspent Biden $23 million to $1 million, yet Trump leads by only 0.9 points (Five Thirty-Eight), a statistical tie.
Wisconsin — The Badger State does not have party registration, but modeling by Target Smart shows Democrats and Republicans equal in requests at 39% each. Biden has maintained and slightly increased his lead since the party conventions. The recent polls come after Trump’s September 1st visit to Kenosha where he refused to meet with the family of shooting victim Jacob Blake but posed in front of destroyed buildings for a photo op. The CBS/YouGov poll occurred during Biden’s Kenosha visit which included a meeting with the Blake family.
Five Thirty-Eight polling average has Biden +7.5 points and RCP has Biden +5.0 points.
· A CBS/YouGov Wisconsin September 2–4 poll has Biden up 6 points, 50%-44%. The poll found a marked difference in partisan response to voting methods. Democrats, by a 3–1 margin plan to vote using absentee ballots. The competitive Supreme Court race in Wisconsin’s spring primary saw a surge in absentee balloting by Democrats. When polling locations were drastically reduced due to the pandemic, the Democratic Party quickly invested in a vote-by-mail turnout operation that led to a larger than expected win in the Supreme Court race. Expect the Democrats to continue to hold the turnout organizing edge:
o 55% of Democrats plan to vote-by-mail compared to 17% of Republicans and 39% of Independent. For whites, 43% of white college voters plan to vote-by-mail compared to 33% of non-college whites.
o 64% of Republicans plan to vote on Election Day compared to 26% of Democrats and 39% of Independents. For whites, 36% of white college voters plan to vote-by-mail compared to 49% of non-college whites.
o There is no noticeable difference among the 20% who plan to vote early in-person.
o Biden carries women by a 54–39 margin while Trump wins men by a narrower 49–45 margin.
o Independents back Biden by 13 points, 49–36%.
o Trump has a slight 48–46 lead over Biden among all whites. Biden leads with college educated whites 53–40 compared to non-college whites where Trump is ahead 52–42.
Michigan — The Great Lakes State is an outlier as Republicans account for 43% of absentee ballot requests compared to 38% of Democrats according to modeling by Target Smart.
Five Thirty-Eight polling average has Biden +6.6 points and RCP has Biden +3.3 points.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at Award-winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
