The President’s Dilemma

Donald Trump’s re-election campaign continues its freefall. This past week brought more disasters. The bad weeks are piling up and the E-Day clock keeps ticking. Early voting begins in 12 weeks. Vote by mail balloting starts a week later. The new surge in coronavirus cases will create more incentive for a record number of people to vote early or by mail.

As he wastes valuable time, the President faces a dilemma. The more he tweets, holds virus super spreader campaign appearances and appears in the media, the worse he does. Meanwhile, a mask wearing Joe Biden practices safe politics, lays low and continues to extend a formidable lead in the polls.

Covid-19 cases are soaring in Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas, states Trump can’t lose. These four states hold a massive trove of 94 Electoral College votes. That’s more than twice the 46 votes he risks losing in the crucial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump also trails in North Carolina and is tied in Ohio and Iowa.

Biden has held steady leads in Florida and Arizona and is in dead heats in Georgia and Texas. Republican Governors in these four states responded early to the President’s call to reopen and now are at the forefront of the latest coronavirus outbreaks. None of these states have instituted mandatory mask wearing in public. Finally, some of these Governors have relented and allow local jurisdictions to mandate masks. Bars, restaurants and beaches are closing.

Does Trump stay away or travel to these hard hit states to hold risky campaign events? Trump gave it a shot before 3,000 Students for Trump supporters inside a Phoenix megachurch. Mask wearing was scarce as people sat shoulder to shoulder. At the church, the President reverted to the same blame, deny and attack messages. He rolled out his tiring racists tropes when he called for “law and order,” defended confederate statues and named Covid-19 the “Kung Flu.”

Under normal times, a Presidential re-election campaign can deploy its top assets to states in need of shoring up. Vice President Mike Pence cancelled campaign events in Arizona and Florida. He wore a mask while attending church services in Dallas, where the closely packed choir sang without masks. The campaign appears to be forsaking failed MAGA rallies for indoor, potential super spreader, megachurch events.

Campaigns with massive bankrolls can saturate the airwaves with targeted advertising to improve their standing. Hillary Clinton’s political advertising advantage in 2016 failed to move the needle. Trump’s current buys in Georgia and North Carolina appear to be similarly ineffective.

The Trump campaign just booked $95 million in television ads that start running in September in Arizona, Florida ($32m), North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s a safe bet that the campaign will be forced to place a Texas sized buy on the Lone Star state. We’ll follow the money and analyze whether the ads have any effect. It’ll be a tough lift. The Trump brand has become contaminated.

Anti-Maskers for Trump

Mask wearing versus no masks — a self-inflicted wound. There is no social, medical or political upside to Trump’s refusal to embrace masks. Trump and his hard core base of anti-maskers have become pariahs. In the midst of the resurgent coronavirus, a growing majority of Americans support wearing masks and practicing social distancing. For Trump, to change on masks shows weakness and betrays the anti-maskers.

Newly released video from set up preparations at the Tulsa rally reveals campaign staff removing social distancing signs on chairs. Given the shoddy attendance, the sign removal was an unnecessary yet dangerous campaign decision. Expect Trump to defy mask wearing and social distancing safety protocols at future events.

Another Weak Review

The intelligence reports on Russians placing bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan is devastating. The President first denied any knowledge of the bounties. It’s an excuse that befits a President who doesn’t read the daily intelligence briefings. The President’s cleanup crew then tried to muddy the intelligence findings and place blame elsewhere. It didn’t work.

The failure to respond to Putin and Russian bounties will open the floodgates of leaks from former and current White House aides highlighting Trump’s national security incompetence. This story will not go away and threatens to erode support from troops and veterans.

The Supreme Court delivered a big blow when it rejected Louisiana’s anti-abortion law. The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals denied the diversion of military funds for Trump’s border wall.

The President’s tweets collided with Americans’ support for racial justice. He re-tweeted videos of the geriatric driver of a Trump decorated golf cart shouting “white power” and the dangerously untrained gun owners threatening peaceful protestors in Saint Louis. The cleanup crew was busy again.

Trump struck out when answering Sean Hannity’s softball question about his “top priorities for a second term.” The President was barely coherent in an answer that listed no priorities.

Polls are showing voter disapproval with Trump on his response to coronavirus and race relations and an alarming loss of support from voters critical to his re-election. The NYTimes/Sienna June 17–22 poll found Trump in trouble:

· Biden leads Trump nationally by 14 points and by margins between 6 and 11 points in six battleground states won by Trump in 2016 (Arizona +7, Florida +6, Michigan +11, North Carolina +9, Pennsylvania +10 and Wisconsin +11).

· Trump is hemorrhaging support with voters over age 65, a demographic he won by seven points in 2016. Biden is up 2 points nationwide, with an astonishing 6 point lead in the six battleground states that delivered a 13 point margin for Trump in 2016.

· White college educated women support Biden by a 39 point margin. Clinton carried this demographic by 7 points.

· 52% of whites under 45 support Biden, giving the former VP a 22 point lead over Trump.

· Independents give Biden an 18 point lead, 47–29%.

· Non-college educated whites over 50 remain the President’s last bastion of support.

· All voters as well as Independents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy by a narrow 50–45% margin. It’s the only issue where Trump secures voter approval. It either represents the last hope for the President, or the final nail in the coffin if the economy shows little signs of recovery.

· Trump’s leadership failures are hurting Republican senate incumbents in Arizona (Kelly-D +9 over Sen. McSally-R) and North Carolina (Cunningham +3 over Sen. Tillis-R) and the Republican challenger in Michigan (Sen. Peters-D +10 over James-R).

Trump spent the week attempting to come up with a new nickname for Biden to replace “Sleepy Joe.” Among the nominees were Swampy, Creepy and Corrupt.

Trump declared he was foregoing a weekend at his New Jersey golf club to maintain “law and order.” Stuck in Washington, It’s no wonder Trump choose to engage in the only low risk option remaining. He spent the weekend golfing at his nearby Virginia club.

Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director for award-winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.