The GOPrisoner’s Dilemma
By Scott Adams
The forty-three Senators who voted “Not Guilty” and the 197 Members of Congress who voted against impeachment chose short term gain for long term pain. They all fear the threat of a Trump retribution primary and have kissed the ring of the twice impeached former President.
The seven brave Republican Senators and ten House members who are not retiring, will surely face primaries, Party censures and death threats. Those who are able to beat back the primary challenges, or like Senator Murkowski — who chose to run as a write-in candidate after a primary defeat, will surely cruise with bipartisan support to re-election in the general election.
The same cannot be said of those who enabled the former President’s insurrection. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and sycophant Senator Lindsey Graham believe they need a fully engaged Donald Trump to reclaim the House and Senate in 2022. They think the pattern of off year elections favoring the out of power party will somehow hold true. It’s a high-risk bet taken under unprecedented political times.
No Trump No Bump
McCarthy and Graham fail to look at recent elections where Trump gets involved but is not on the ballot. In 2017, Trump’s preferred candidate for the Alabama Senate special election lost in the primary to Roy Moore. The then Trump backed Moore went on to lose to Democrat Doug Jones. Jones’ win was powered by the same African-American, white college educated, women and youth vote that would prove critical in Georgia. This was an embarrassing loss for Trump in crimson red Alabama.
In 2018, the Republicans lost the House in resounding fashion including unexpected upsets in South Carolina and Oklahoma (these two districts would return to Republicans in 2020). The Democrats, who had many tough seats to defend, lost ground in the Senate in 2018. Democrats lost a net of two races to fall to 47 senate seats. Democratic Senators Manchin (WV) and Tester (MT) held on to their seats in red states, while Democrats lost in the Trump states of Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota. However, Democrats picked up seats in Nevada and in the increasingly purple state of Arizona, a sign of things to come.
The Georgia Senate November 3rd elections and runoffs show what happens when Trump is and is not on the ballot. Joe Biden won Georgia by the now infamous margin of 11,779. “I just want to find 11,780 votes” barked Trump in his January 2nd call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Jon Ossoff, who trailed incumbent Senator David Perdue by 88,000 in the November 3rd, 2020 election, barely forced a runoff by keeping David Perdue (49.73%) under the 50% threshold.
Raphael Warnock led a crowded field in the November 3rd special election with 33% of the vote and would face incumbent (appointed) Senator Kelly Loeffler (25%) in the January 5th 2021 runoff. There were more votes cast for Republican candidates in the November special election.
The Democrats won back the majority with the two Georgia victories on January 5th. Trump, who complained about election fraud while campaigning for Loeffler and Perdue in the runoffs, was not on the ballot. Georgia Democrats ran a many years in the making first-rate grassroots field, persuasion and turnout operation.
The win margins for both Warnock and Ossoff are telling. Warnock won by 93,550 votes. Ossoff erased his 88,000-vote deficit and won by 55,232 votes — a net gain of over 143,000 votes over his opponent. Perdue has indicated his intent to run against Warnock in 2022. If Warnock keeps his winning coalition intact, including Democratic gains with white college educated suburban voters, expect Perdue’s attempt at political redemption to come up short.
When Trump is on the ballot, he turns out his base and influences House and Senate races. The Democrats lost seats in the House in the November 3rd 2020 elections and failed to take back the Senate on November 3rd. Trump presence helped Republican incumbents in Montana, North Carolina, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina beat back serious opponents.
Republicans Fight and Flee
To put it mildly, the Republican Party is in disarray. Two factions are battling to claim whatever soul of the party is left. There is serious talk of one faction splitting off to form a new party or movement. Corporate PAC dollars are on hold for Republican incumbents who voted against recognizing the will of the nation’s voters.
White suburban college educated voters, who once formed the core of the Republican Party, abandoned Republican candidates in the 2018 and 2020 elections and helped flip Arizona and Georgia to Biden and Democratic Senators.
Since the January 6th insurrection, voter registration data reveals significant numbers of Republicans leaving their party with most re-registering as independents Why Thousands of Republicans Are Leaving the Party — The New York Times. January data shows 140,000 Republicans changing party affiliation compared to 79,000 Democrats in 25 states that track registration by party. Three swing states with competitive Senate races in 2022 show Republicans fleeing their party. In January alone, 12,000 Republicans left the party in Pennsylvania while over 10,000 did the same in Arizona. In North Carolina, 8,000 Republicans left their part compared to 2,000 Democrats, a solid 4–1 margin.
Newly elected Senator Mark Kelly is up for re-election in Arizona with open Republican held Senate seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Adding gasoline to the Republican dumpster fire are the votes to convict Trump by retiring Senators Richard Burr (NC) and Pat Toomey (PA).
Trump’s attack on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell simply adds more fuel. It only got better when endangered Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson piled on in his criticism of McConnell.
The former President’s expected obsession about the “stolen election” combined with primary challenges to his enemies will be anything but helpful for Republicans’ goal to take back the House and Senate.
Redistricting Poses New Challenges
Republicans are expected to jam through favorable state legislative and Congressional maps in states where they control all levers including, Texas (predicted to gain 2–3 Congressional seats) and Georgia. Republicans made gains in state legislatures and Congress in the 2020 cycle. However, Republican infighting combined with Party defectors pose huge redistricting challenges. There simply are not enough people living in exurbs and rural areas to reach a sustained majority. Republicans no longer have the suburbs to carve out advantages. Republican state legislatures may have no choice but to gamble on the redistricting margins by betting they can hold suburban voters. If they are wrong, they’ll pay the price in the 2022 midterms.
Democrats Pushing Progressive Populist Policy
The Democrats $1.9 trillion stimulus relief plan contains measures that were major parts of their campaign platforms. The plan puts Republicans in a bind. Republican opposition to middle class families receiving $1,400 stimulus checks is not only an unpopular position, but takes money out of the hands of voters.
The long-awaited raise in the minimum wage may not have the votes in Washington, but ballot measures to raise the wage continue to be passed by voters. Cities, counties and states of all sizes and political leanings desperately need funds to provide essential, health and public safety services. Voters strongly support money in the plan for Covid testing and vaccinations. Most leading economists and the Federal Reserve say it’s better to go too big than too small.
The Democrats are running on all cylinders, have solidly coalesced around this popular plan and are ready to deliver on their promises.
Meanwhile Republicans are censuring and condemning the few remaining members of their Party who have spines, bowing down to a twice disgraced former President and playing politics with people’s lives. They will oppose the $1.9 trillion plan at their own peril. Their self-inflicting wounds may prove fatal in 2022.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director for Award Winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
