Team Trump — Reeling, Bailing & Failing
We’ve been blogging since Memorial Day about how President Trump is wasting time and opportunities in an election cycle experiencing an unprecedented early voting timeline. With voting underway in battleground states across the country, and the first two debates in the books, Trump is reeling, bailing and failing.
After watching Vice-President Mike Pence continually talk over the debate moderator and Senator Kamala Harris, my wife continues to remind me that women hate it when men talk over them. She tells me “You do it all the time.” Bad news in this house when I am compared unfavorably to Mike Pence, but even worse news for Team Trump.
Reeling in the Polls with Voters Over 65, Women & Independents
There is no COVID-19 sympathy bounce for the President. Voters have consistently panned Trump’s response to the coronavirus, including a measurable number of Republicans. Real Clear Politics’ polling average on the President’s approval on handling coronavirus is -14.5.
Trump’s troubles continue with voters who are key to any chance he has at mounting a comeback — voters over 65, women and independents.
In 2019, Trump carried voters over 65 by 8 points in NBC exit polls. The WSJ/NBC October 4th poll has Joe Biden up 14 points, with voters over 65 giving Biden a huge 27 point advantage. In the last month, Biden gained 23 points with these older voters.
The CNN October 1–4 poll has Biden up 16 points, 57–41. Trump’s disapproval for handling the coronavirus is -21 with health care at -20. Trump is even with Biden on handling the economy, his only modest strength with voters. Voters over 65 support Biden by 21 points, 60–39. Independents back Biden by 19 points, 57–38. Trump’s 2 point lead with men is dwarfed by Biden’s commanding 34 point lead with women, 66–32. Biden has a 4 point lead with white voters. He trails Trump by 13 points with non-college educated whites — a vast improvement over Hillary Clinton who lost this demographic by 30 points — and is up 33 points with white college educated voters.
Trump is struggling to claw back voters who broke his way in 2016. One path forward is to find voters not likely to turnout and bring them to the polls. The lowest turnout by age demographic are voters under 35. But they won’t help Trump, he trails Biden in the CNN poll with voters 18–34 by 25 points, 61–36. The Economist/You Gov (Oct 4–6) gives Biden a 33 point lead, 55–22 with voters 18–29.
More bad news at Rasmussen, the pollster whose results are consistently more favorable to Trump. Rasmussen’s job approval ratings are an outlier in polling averages. On September 18th, Rasmussen had Trump’s job approval at +4, compared to RCP’s average -9 approval. By October 7th, Rasmussen’s daily tracking recorded its lowest approval rating for the President at -15 with 49% strongly disapproving. Rasmussen’s disapproval findings were well above the RCP average of -9.6 points.
Rasmussen’s precipitous drop in approval for Trump mirrors its head to head findings. Over the last few of weeks, Biden’s lead has grown from 1 point to 8 points to 12 points by October 7th.
Electoral College Offers No Refuge for Trump
The Electoral College can be won or lost by a field operation. Trump’s is ailing while Biden’s healthy, socially distant and virtual field operation is running on all cylinders.
In July Trump’s Electoral Wall is Falling Down, we predicted Trump’s Electoral College ceiling was 270, just enough to win. We also said Joe Biden’s floor was 269, enough to secure a tie. It’s getting harder for Trump to hit his ceiling. Biden’s standing in the polls continues to trend up, making it easier to hit his floor and keep climbing.
Of the fifteen battleground states where the NY Times compiles polling averages, the President has a lead in only one — Texas — where he clings to a 1 point advantage over Biden. Biden has narrow leads in states once seen as big reaches — Georgia +1, Ohio +2 and Iowa +3. The former Vice President is up 4 points in North Carolina and 5 points in Florida, Arizona and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Nevada gives Biden a 7 point lead while Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska CD 2 provide him with an 8 point lead. Michigan gives Biden a 9 point lead while Trump’s reach states of New Hampshire and Minnesota show Biden up 10 points.
We have been following Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District over the last few months. Nebraska, like Maine, awards Electoral College votes to the winners of each of the state’s Congressional Districts. The second district is a microcosm of the US Electorate. It encompasses Omaha, a mid-sized city and its suburbs, and extends to rural farmlands. As Omaha goes, so goes the nation. Biden’s lead has been solid and trending up to an 8 point lead. Trump has abandoned media ads in Omaha which extend into the red leaning areas of Western Iowa.
Bailing Out of Battleground States
According to Advertising Analytics, Biden has outspent Trump in 72 of 83 battleground markets. Trump’s Super PACS also trail Democratic PACS in battleground states. The September fundraising numbers have not yet been released. Yet all signs point to another month where Biden dominates Trump in fundraising. Trump’s media buys are shrinking while Biden is aggressively expanding his TV and radio advertising.
After being exposed to coronavirus, Trump attended fundraisers in Minnesota and New Jersey in a desperate attempt to add to his totals. It’s unclear when Trump last tested negative. Was it before or after the debate, or his visits to Minnesota and New Jersey? The White House has refused to release those details.
Trump has gone dark in four states — Ohio, Iowa, Texas and New Hampshire — three of them critical to his re-election chances. He’s pulled out of the Omaha market.
Meanwhile, Biden has placed a $6.2 million buy in Texas, with an emphasis on reaching Latino voters. Of all the battleground states, Trump has outspent Biden in only one, Georgia, where Biden has a tiny lead. Biden has outspent Trump by 3–1 in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota and by 2–1 in Arizona.
Trump has invested heavily in Florida over the last three weeks, but his $17 million still trails Biden’s $20 million while Democratic PACs outspent GOP PACs. Biden has spent $2 million more than Trump in North Carolina and Michigan.
Since August, Biden has outspent Trump in Ohio by a 10–1 ratio, $2.5 million to $240,000 and in Iowa by $1.4 million to none.
Failing During Crunch Time
Trump’s campaign and White House operations are in disarray at the worst possible time. Super spreader events have infected staff. Back stabbing, leaks and constant sniping among staff is the norm. Staff has been left in the dark about possible exposure to COVID-19. The President lost at least a week, if not more, from his positive coronavirus test and hospitalization. His response and decision making since testing positive has not helped his re-election operation.
The President’s campaign operation is moving sideways at best as Americans in battleground states cast early ballots.
Trump and his operatives have mocked the Biden campaign’s decision to embrace mask wearing, social distancing and virtual organizing. But one campaign is in high gear at the right time and it’s not the President’s.
Biden’s field operation is turning out supporters to vote early — by mail or at early voting sites and organizing to counter voter suppression efforts. According to CNN, 60% of Biden’s supporters plan to vote early or by mail compared to over three-fourths of Trump voters who plan to vote on Election Day.
Trump continues to cast doubt on the integrity of the election and refuses to say whether he would accept the results. His field operation relies on Election Day turnout, a difficult burden to overcome compared to Biden’s operation banking votes early.
Trump is quickly running out of time as he fails at crunch time.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at Pollie Award winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
