Sarah Palin Is Down, Are MAGA Candidates On the Way Out?
By Scott Adams
In our recent blog (Aug 19) Oh Alaska — Is Palin Doomed? that analyzed the initial primary results in the Alaska Ranked Choice Voting Congressional special election, we noted several data points that would determine the winner.
With 80% of the Primary vote in on August 19th, but with a large tranche of votes still to come in from remote, Native Alaskan areas, we predicted that Democrat Mary Peltola would slightly increase her 6-point lead over second place finisher and Trump endorsed former Governor Sarah Palin. Peltola did just that beating Palin by 9 points, 40.2%-31.2%. This added 3-point cushion would prove to be decisive.
We also discussed the impact of the number of 3rd place finisher Republican Nick Begich III’s “exhausted votes” (Begich voters who failed to choose a 2nd pick between Peltola and Palin). The higher that number the steeper the climb for Palin. Begich’s support base came from moderate Republicans and Independents.
Finally, we wrote that Palin needed to carry at least 60% of Begich voters’ second choice to catch Peltola.
Ranked Choice Voting gave Peltola a 3-point 51.5% to 48.5% win over Palin. Peltola becomes the first Native Alaskan elected to Congress as well as the first Democrat to serve in fifty years.
The General Election for this Congressional seat will feature the same three candidates in the RCV phase.
Palin Won Only 50% of Republican Begich’s Voters
Begich came into the final round of ranked choice voting with 53,756 votes, or 28.5% of the vote. Palin won only 50% of Begich voters and gained 27,042 votes. Peltola won 29% for a net gain of 15,445 votes. A startling 21%, or 11,222 Begich voters exhausted their ranked choice votes.
This RCV election tracked exactly where voters who backed the runner up Republican decided to cast their next vote. In no other type of election can you immediately and accurately quantify where voters, who backed the second highest Republican vote getter, cast their next ballots.
Three out of ten Begich voters chose Democrat Peltola. Two out of ten Begich voters did not support Palin and simply sat out the next round of voting. There may very well be parallels between this RCV behavior and how voters who supported runner up Republicans in primaries across the country behave in the General Election.
Trouble Ahead for MAGA Candidates
In states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin, Trump backed MAGA Republicans are the nominees for Governor and Senator. Georgia and Ohio have Trump backed candidates for Senator. These novice and inexperienced Republican candidates continue to make unforced errors ripe for viral responses, lag in fundraising and miss opportunities to stay on message.
Of the Trump endorsed, election denier, MAGA Republican candidates on the ballot in competitive races across the country, Sarah Palin is one of the most seasoned politicians — she has won a statewide office. Yet she failed to solidify support from moderate Republicans and Independents.
Meanwhile, the Democrats have a deep bench of respected, skilled candidates and incumbents who are running on all cylinders. John Fetterman continues to build a lead over Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Tim Ryan is a dream candidate in Ohio and poised to score an upset win over JD Vance. Mark Kelly is in good shape in Arizona against neophyte and web site scrubber Blake Masters. Raphael Warnock holds a slight lead over the never ceases to say something bizarre Herschel Walker in Georgia. And Mandela Barnes has a small edge over incumbent Ron Johnson.
The Alaska results combined with other post-Dobbs Congressional special elections in Republican leaning districts in Nebraska-1, Minnesota-1 and New York-19 & -23 do not bode well for Republicans. Democrat Pat Ryan won a slight upset in New York 19. Democratic candidates improved their performance by an average of 5 points over Joe Biden in these post-Dobbs special election races.
Democrats suddenly have the momentum in the battle for control of Congress with hard electoral results to back it up.
Will moderate Republican Primary voters sit out the General Election or follow the lead of never Trump Republicans and vote for Democrats? If it happened in Red Alaska, it could happen anywhere.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director of Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
