Party Conventions — All About the Base
With a touch of decency, empathy and justice on the blue side, and socialism, fear and law & order on the red side
By Scott Adams
The Democratic National Convention did little to move the needle for Joe Biden. Polls, which have been tightening a bit, will likely show little bounce for Donald Trump after the Republican National Convention. The Conventions played to their respective bases and that core support should harden. Democrats will solidify their base of women, young voters, African-Americans, Latinos, college educated and other pieces of the diverse coalition. Republicans should see upticks among non-college educated whites.
In an attempt to hold on to gains made in 2018 among college educated suburban whites, Democrats emphasized Biden’s decency, empathy and sense of justice. The Republican’s red meat diet of socialism, fear and law & order was aimed at scaring, as Trump calls them, “suburban housewives of America.” We’ll keep a close eye on whether there is any movement among college educated whites.
Hitting 270
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien told Politico “You want optionality when you look at the map. The president holds true to the states he won in 2016. I’m asked all the time, how are you going to run the table in the Upper Midwest again? He just has to win one of three. He won with 306 electoral votes, not 270, not on the button. We have some cushion there.”
Stepien is correct, if Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, and wins every other battleground state including Wisconsin, he hits 270 on the nose. Among the battleground states Trump carried in 2016, Biden has maintained the largest leads in Michigan (+7 points) and Pennsylvania (+5.8 points). Stepien does indeed have a cushion, the size of one pin.
Our Trump’s Electoral Wall is Falling Down July 16th blog predicted Trump’s ceiling at 270 and Biden’s floor at 269. Not much has changed, though Biden’s floor might now be 268.
Electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska are awarded by Congressional District with 2 additional votes going to the winner of each state’s popular vote. Trump won Maine’s rural 2nd CD in 2016, though that Congressional seat flipped to the Democrats in 2018. RCP polling average has Biden up 1 point in Maine’s 2nd CD, with Biden expected to win Maine’s other 3 electoral votes.
Nebraska’s 2nd CD offers a potentially easier path for Biden to pick up one electoral vote. The 2nd district contains all of Omaha and its suburbs, friendly terrain for Democrats, with a slice of rural areas. The latest poll, July 13 by GQR Research, has Biden up 7 points, 51–44. Nebraska’s 2ndCD could end up deciding the fate of the election. I can hear the famous audible call of quarterback Peyton Manning “Omaha, Omaha.”
Under Stepien’s logic to win just one of three (Wisconsin), if Biden wins back both ME 2 and NE 2, Trump gets stuck at 268 and Biden hits 270. If they split these districts, its 269 all and goes to a House tiebreaker favorable to Republicans.
But this narrowest of margins scenario, does not take into account other battleground states. And the battleground list keeps growing. RCP just moved Missouri to tossup.
Battleground Advertising Buys and Polling Edges
Advertising Analytics tracks advertising spending, including messaging strategies, by campaigns and PACS. From March 18 into August, Trump and his PACS outspent Biden and his PACS by a $367 million to $260 million margin on ads that have already aired. Broadcast TV ads accounted for 51% of the ad buys, while 28% was spent on digital ads.
Trump outspent Biden in 9 of the 13 battleground states. Yet Biden is leading in 9 of the 13 states, tied in North Carolina, and closely trailing Trump in 3 states, Iowa, Georgia and Texas. Biden has outspent Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania where the former Vice President has his largest polling advantages.
This dynamic poses serious challenges to Trump. The President has outspent Biden and must nearly run the tables to reach 270. His negative attack ads, messages often repeated at the RNC, have not yet helped the President in Electoral College votes. RCP puts Biden at 212 electoral votes to Trump’s 115 votes with 211 votes remaining as tossups.
Eighty percent of Pro-Trump ads are negative, 8% are contrast ads and only 12% positive. Negative messaging has focused on socialism and law and order — defund the police, antifa, looting, rioting. Meanwhile, Pro-Biden ads are 48% negative, mostly focused on Trump’s Covid-19 leadership failures, and 40% positive.
Let’s take a look at battleground states, ad money spent by Biden/ Pro-Biden PACs & Trump/Pro-Trump PACs, and RCP polling averages. The ad money listed is for ads that have already aired since March 18th. Dollar figures do not include ads set to air after Labor Day.
Florida-29 Electoral Votes
$32 million — Pro Biden
$75 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +3.7
Michigan-16 Electoral Votes
$38 million — Pro Biden
$22 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +7
Pennsylvania-20 Electoral Votes
$31 million — Pro Biden
$22 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +5.8
North Carolina-15 Electoral Votes
$12 million — Pro Biden
$39 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Tie
Wisconsin-10 Electoral Votes
$25 million — Pro Biden
$21 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +3.5
Arizona-11 Electoral Votes
$21 million — Pro Biden
$19 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +2.2
Ohio-18 Electoral Votes
$1 million — Pro Biden
$23 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +2.3
Minnesota-10 Electoral Votes
$4 million — Pro Biden
$16 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +5.3
Iowa-6 Electoral Votes
$2 million — Pro Biden
$8 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Trump +1.7
Nevada-6 Electoral Votes
$1 million — Pro Biden
$9 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +4
New Hampshire-4 Electoral Votes
$0 — Pro Biden
$7 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Biden +9.7
Georgia-16 Electoral Votes
$0 — Pro Biden
$6 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Trump +1.1
Texas-38 Electoral Votes
$0 — Pro Biden
$2 million — Pro Trump
RCP Polling Average: Trump +3.5
Are Covid-19 Deaths Acceptable
An August 23 CBS/YouGov poll asked if 176,000 Covid-19 deaths were acceptable. For Republicans, 57% found the deaths acceptable, while 43% found them unacceptable. Democrats, at 90% and independents at 67% found the number of deaths to be unacceptable. Over four in ten Republicans find the death rate unacceptable. That’s a troubling number for the President who responded to a question about the Covid death rate “It is what it is.”
In the same poll, when asked if America is better off today, Republicans agreed by a 75–25 margin. But one in four Republicans believe America is worse off, another potential warning sign for the President. Amongst all voters, 65% believed American is worse off.
When asked about how the US was dealing with Covid, 62% responded it was going badly with 38% saying it was going well. Republicans favored going well at 73% to going badly at 27%. More than one in four Republicans believe the response to Covid is going badly. That’s not good news for the President.
Trump Job Approval Still Underwater
The RCP polling average has Trump’s job approval underwater at -10.4 points; foreign policy approval at -17.7 points; handling of Covid-19 at -17.8 points; favorability at -12.9 points. Trump’s only positive approval is on the Economy, and he is barely above water at +1.4 points.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director for Award Winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
