Oh Alaska — Is Palin Doomed?
We saw what happened in Kansas when voters in a dark red state rejected a constitutional amendment to eliminate reproductive rights. The abortion ban failed by a 58–42 margin. Still the question remained as to whether this single issue vote on abortion would have any effect on the 2022 General Election. Alaska’s Congressional special election featuring Republican Sarah Palin will provide the next clue leading up to the Midterms.
The results in Alaska’s special election to fill long time Congressman Don Young’s seat do not bode well for Trump’s MAGA world. Young, a Republican who died in March, had held the seat since 1973. It’s been 50 years since a Democrat, Nick Begich who disappeared in a plane crash, has represented Alaska.
Trump sycophant Sarah Palin trails Democrat Mary Peltola by 6% points 38% — 31.9% with an estimated 81% of votes counted in Alaska’s new Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system. Peltola holds a 9,427 vote lead over Palin with Republican Nick Begich III in third with 28.6%.
As the last place finisher, Begich voters’ second ranked choices will determine the winner. The next rounds of RCV tabulations begins on August 31.
Peltola, who would become the first Alaska Native in Congress, is a former state legislator with a reputation for both being principled and working across the aisle — a solid combination in the ranked choice voting world. Peltola may be the only person in Alaska who was not surprised of her first-place performance.
Votes from remote Alaska communities have until August 28 to arrive and be counted. Many of these districts give Peltola a comfortable lead with sizeable numbers of votes left to count. Native Alaskans represent 15% of voters and were key to Senator Lisa Murkowski’s write in victory in 2016. Expect Peltola to slightly increase her lead over Palin once all the votes are counted. This added cushion could prove to be significant as RCV is tabulated.
The remaining 1.5% of the vote were cast for write in candidates.
In the same primary election to fill the full two-year term, Peltola leads with 35.2%, to Palin’s 31.1%, to Begich’s 26.8% with the last qualifier for the November 2022 General Election four person RCV race garnering 3.7%.
Palin Needs 60% of Begich Voters to Win the Ranked Choice Election
Begich’s voters will decide the election as their second choice will be Palin, Peltola or left blank. As of today’s count, Peltola, at 38%, only needs 12 more points to break 50%. Palin at 31.9% needs over 18 points. Peltola only needs 40% of Begich voters to choose her as their second choice to win. Palin needs to lose the ranked choice round by less than 20 points, or win 60% of Begich voters to have any chance.
Palin has to overcome a deficit. That path is made harder if Begich and write in voters leave their second choice blank which effectively eliminates these votes. Every non-vote pushes Peltola closer to the finish line.
Murkowski Factor
Alaska’s system of Ranked Choice Voting favors moderates. The top four finishers in the primary — which was held concurrently with the Congressional special — advance to the runoff/General Election where Ranked Choice Voting takes place. Senator Lisa Murkowski won 44.2% of the primary and holds a 4.4% lead over Trump backed Kelly Tshibaka at 39.8%. A Democrat with 6.2% of the vote also advanced to the runoff.
The election result maps of Alaska show Murkowski and Peltola winning nearly all the same districts. There are more Murkowski/Peltola voters than any other combination. The next largest combination are Tshibaka/Palin voters.
The decisive factor in RCV in the special election is the breakdown of Murkowski/Begich and Tshibaka/Begich voters. How they break in rank choice voting may be indicative of an Alaskan and broader national split in the Republican Party.
Did Palin’s MAGA centric message push Alaska’s moderate Republican voters to Begich? Do these moderate Republican Begich voters align more with Murkowski and perhaps the never Trump wing of the Republican Party? Palin is in trouble if Murkowski/Begich voters break to Peltola in RCV.
Impact on the Midterms
While Republicans were claiming the Midterm elections would be decided on inflation and the economy, they continue to nominate Trump endorsed MAGA extremist election deniers. A Palin defeat in RCV could have national significance. It will be an unmistakable sign that midterm moderate Republican voters are willing to vote for a Democrat.
Polling and campaign momentum are favoring Democratic incumbent Senators Mark Kelly (AZ) and Raphael Warnock (GA), Democratic Mandela Barnes’s (WI) challenge to Senator Ron Johnson and John Fetterman’s relentlessly effective campaign against Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat. In Ohio’s open Senate race, Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan holds a tiny polling lead and has outraised Republican JD Vance — who is on the receiving end of a $28 million Mitch McConnell ad spend bailout. These tight Senate races have one thing in common, the Republicans are all Trump endorsed election deniers.
This does not bode well for Trump’s Stop the Steal election deniers who advanced in primaries across the country. These Republican primary winners, with their opposition to abortion rights, fealty to a disgraced former President and support for the January 6th insurrectionists, may drive away moderate Republican voters who have been pushed to the Party’s margins.
In Arizona, Trumpist Mark Finchem won the Republican nomination for Secretary of State — a position that could allow the nominee to thwart the will of the voters and commit election fraud. Here’s what Republican Paul Boyer, who served with Finchem in the Arizona State House, said in Politico about the nominee: “Mark is known as the guy that’s probably the dumbest — well, there’s a long list, but one of the dumbest — legislators in the state House.”
If Palin fails to catch Peltola in the RCV phase, it will reinforce the message from Kansas. All is not well in Trump Land.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at award-winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
