Manchin’s Left Hook Floors McConnell
And Why Kansas Matters
By Scott Adams
Borrowing from Muhammad Ali’s Rope a Dope strategy where the boxer “shocked the world,” West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin’s out of nowhere left hook floored Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
McConnell had threatened to hold up a badly needed bill to boost domestic semiconductor production if Senate Democrats proceeded with a budget reconciliation maneuver for President Biden’s far-reaching Build Back Better bill. Reconciliation allows for a bill to pass on a simple majority, avoiding the Senate filibuster.
I’ve heard many of my Democratic friends and family complain about Manchin — “We need to primary him,” “He’s a front for the fossil fuel industry,” “You can’t trust Manchin, he might as well be a Republican.” My simple retort asks the question “Who is Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer or Mitch McConnell.” Case closed.
Two weeks ago, Manchin withdrew his support for Build Back Better — the climate/energy/health care bill — citing in part his concerns that the bill would add to inflation pressure. The Senate then proceeded to debate and pass the U.S. Semiconductor Bill.
A mere couple of hours after the semiconductor bill passed, Manchin and Schumer announced support for an ambitious and historic bill to fund climate programs, energy and reduce prescription drug costs. Manchin becomes the sponsor of the Inflation Reduction Act, a scaled down version of Build Back Better. Manchin also secured support for a few drilling and pipeline projects.
Manchin has reportedly said to his Democratic Senate colleague Chris Coons that introducing the Inflation Reduction Act would be like hitting a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth.
Manchin’s wrong about the walk off homer analogy. It’s more like coming in as the “Closing” pitcher in the bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, no outs, Democrats nursing a one run lead with Mitch McConnell as the home plate umpire. Manchin strikes out the side on three swinging strike threes, rendering the home plate umpire useless.
Kansas Matters
Surging Turnout on Constitutional Amendment to End Abortion Protection — Independent Voters Key to Defeating Ballot Measure
Kansas Republican lawmakers couldn’t wait to place their misleadingly named “Value them Both” ballot amendment to overturn the 2019 Kansas Supreme Court ruling affirming women’s constitutional protected reproductive rights. A YES vote would open the door for the Kansas State Legislature to ban Abortion access. A NO vote would keep the Kansas Constitutional abortion protections in place.
The August 2, 2022 primary would have low turnout with partisan, conservative Republicans dominating at the ballot box. Independents and moderates, the swing voters of Kansas, have little history nor much reason to show up. Independents can’t vote in a partisan primary.
However, Independents can vote on the Amendment, and with nothing else to vote on, there will be no down ballot drop off for this decisive slice of the electorate.
This is the first post-Dobbs ballot measure that gives voters, not state legislators, a direct yes or no vote on a constitutional right to abortion.
Surging Early and Absentee Voting
As of July 27th, early in person voting is up 246% compared to the same timeline in the 2018 primary. Turnout is more than triple with 110,687 voting to 32,004 in 2018.
Absentee returned ballots — 52,865 in 2022 are more than double the 24,063 returned 2018 absentee ballots.
As of July 25th, the Kansas Secretary of State showed Republicans representing 43.7% of Early and Absentee votes cast or returned, Democrats at 42% and Independents at a surprising 14.3%.
If polling is accurate, the surging early and absentee turnout should give the NO vote a not insignificant lead heading into Election Day. We’ll look at why the high turnout of swing voters, moderates and independents, hold the key to defeating this amendment.
Polling Shows a Tight Race
The July 18 Kansas co/efficient poll shows a tight race with 47% YES, 43% NO and 10% Undecided. The universe polled is decidedly different than early votes cast and absentee ballots returned and may under poll the percentage of Independents and possibly Democrats who vote. While Democrats are expected to vote early, Independents in closed partisan primaries are not.
Overall, 49% of respondents were in favor of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe compared to 46% who opposed the Court’s decision.
Poll respondents were 62% Republican, 31% Democrat and 7% Independent and political leaning were 51% Conservative, 30% Moderates and 19% Liberal. Women represented 54% of those polled, with men at 46%.
The Secretary of State early voter data as of July 25th has Democrats/Independents combining for 56% of the votes cast compared to 44% for Republicans.
Independents have historically had little reason to vote in mid-term closed partisan primaries, much less vote early. And Independents are turning out at twice the rate that the poll predicts. Independents, and moderates, are likely to punch above their weight. Independents oppose the amendment by more than 2–1 while moderates oppose it by nearly 3–1.
Eighty-six percent of moderates and Independents say this amendment has increased the importance of voting, compared to 94% of Democrats, 89% of women, 79% of Conservatives, 78% of Republicans and 77% of men. Polling shows turnout motivation clearly favors demographics voting NO on the Amendment.
If Independents continue to turnout at their current early and absentee voting rate of 14% of the electorate, the Amendment will likely fail.
Polling Demographic Voting Patterns on “Value them Both”
Vote YES Base (47%): Republicans, Conservatives, Men & Voters over 45 years old.
Vote NO Base (43%): Democrats, Independents, Moderates, Liberals, Women & under 45 years old.
Undecided Voters (10%): Republicans and Conservatives over perform respectively at 14% and 13% undecided. Voters over 65 have a high 16% undecided response.
Democrats: (10% YES, 86% NO, 4% Und) and Liberals (88% NO, 8% YES, 4% Und) are solidly in the Vote NO camp with very few undecided voters.
Moderates: (23% YES, 67% NO, 10% Und) are strongly in the NO camp with the rate of undecideds matching the entire poll.
Independents: (30% YES, 63% NO, 8% Und) are strongly in the NO camp. Independents may be underrepresented in the poll.
Republicans: (68% YES, a significant 18% NO and 14% Und). Republicans may be overrepresented in the poll. Conservatives (77% YES, 11% NO, 13% Und).
Women: (42% Yes, 46% NO, 11% Und)
Men: (53% YES, 38% NO, 9% Und)
Ages: Voters under 45 oppose the measure with very few undecided voters. Voters 18–34 oppose the Amendment by a 3–1 margin. Younger voters over performing in turnout could help defeat the Amendment. Voters over 45 support the measure, but have higher rates of undecided voters, particularly voters over 65 at 16% undecided.
18–34 24% YES, 75% NO, 1% Und
35–44 45% YES, 52% NO, 3% Und
45–54 52% YES, 39% NO, 10% Und
55–64 51% YES, 40% NO, 9% Und
65+ 50% YES, 33% NO, 16% Und
Will Kansas’s Abortion Vote Have Legs
Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, support for Roe has risen. The July 22–24 Washington Post poll WaPost abortion trend shows voters by a 65–35 margin believe that overturning Roe marks a major loss of rights for American women. The Post also found that 31% of respondents now list abortion as their most important issue, up from 14% in a Washington Post poll conducted three years ago.
The Post poll found that Democrats and abortion rights supporters have a mid-term turnout challenge. Among voters likely to turnout, 66% who support making abortion illegal plan to vote compared to only 55% of voters who support legal abortions.
The Kansas co/efficient poll shows a motivational turnout edge to voters opposed to stripping away a women’s right to abortion.
A NO vote win in ruby red Kansas, may send shock waves that are felt when “pro-choice” and “pro-life” candidates face off for federal, state and local campaigns in November 2022. A narrow YES vote win may also send a strong message to motivate “pro-choice” voters.
In Kansas, it’s come down to persuasion, motivation and turnout.
All eyes are on the Sunflower State.
If you want to help the Vote NO campaign, consider supporting https://kansansforfreedom.com and their grassroots efforts to turnout the NO vote. This blogger clicked and donated. You can too.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at Award-Winning Green Alley Strategies — a creative campaign communications firm.
