Joe Biden Owns Donald Trump
It was only a matter of time for the President to realize his campaign was critically damaged. Donald Trump is going to need to do more than pull a mask out of his pocket to turn things around. His trouble is he’s a known quantity and the Trump brand is toxic.
The last advantage in the polls for Donald Trump, approval for handling the economy, just evaporated. Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average puts Trump up a mere 0.5% on the economy. Voters disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus by 19.7% in the RCP average. His favorability is underwater by 17.5% and job approval by 13.8%.
Trump’s mode of operandi is to lie, incite and bully. In addition, six months of denying the severity of the coronavirus, deflecting responsibility and urging states to irresponsibly re-open has created a toll. Persuadable voters — women, college educated whites, suburbanites and over age 65 — have moved to Biden in significant numbers. The President’s one-eighty on Covid-19 is not going to work on voters who have simply had enough. They won’t be conned by a sweet talker. A bully will always be a bully.
Biden’s Huge Advantage in Big Safe States
Our last blog Trump’s Electoral Wall is Falling Down — Trump’s Ceiling 270/Biden’s Floor 269 looked at why Trump’s Electoral College ceiling is 270 while Biden’s floor is 269. Nothing has changed in the electoral math to change that prediction.
The three biggest states that Biden has locked up are California’s 55 Electoral College votes, New York’s 29 and Illinois’ 20 for a total of 104.
Trump’s two biggest safe states are Indiana — though no polling since Memorial Day in the Hoosier state — and Tennessee, each with 11 votes. Alabama’s 9 votes is the next largest safe state for Trump giving him a paltry 31 votes from his top three safe states.
It gets dicey for Trump after that. Missouri with 10 votes (Trump +6.4 in RCP average) is no longer safe, but likely. South Carolina with 9 votes is becoming competitive — a July 17 Gravis poll has Trump up 4 points.
Biden’s next biggest safe states — New Jersey’s 14, Washington’s 12, Massachusetts’ 11 and Maryland’s 10 are equal to or than greater Trump’s top three states. The next very likely larger states for Biden are Virginia’s 13, Minnesota’s 10 (RCP average +11.4 Biden) and Colorado’s 9 votes. For safe and likely states with at least 9 Electoral College votes, Biden’s 183 dwarfs Trump’s 50.
Trump has a slight advantage with 75 Electoral College votes from safe/likely states that have less than 9 Electoral College votes. But Biden’s 50 votes from smaller states gives him a commanding 233 electoral votes to Trump’s 125. These numbers do not include the 46 Electoral College votes from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Biden has an overwhelming Electoral College advantage in safe states. His flank is protected. Most of the remaining battleground states are large and costly. Trump has to win virtually every battleground state to hit 270.
Trolling Trump in the Battleground States
It’s becoming clear that Biden owns the Electoral College map and will be able to dictate the advertising strategy. The former Vice-President has outraised Trump in the last two months and narrowed the incumbent’s cash on hand advantage.
Biden continues to run ads, and lead, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Biden can spend his resources in his six priority battleground states and troll the Trump campaign with deliberate ad buys in other battleground states.
Trump has little time left to fix his disastrous electoral standing. The President must defend battleground states that are in expensive media markets. Trump will have to outspend the Biden campaign in battlegrounds. The President’s cash on hand edge should quickly disappear.
This month, Trump aired “law and order” ads in Ohio ($600k) and Georgia ($1.3 million). In Ohio, Biden is up 1.5% while Trump is narrowly up in Georgia by 2.7 points in the RCP average. Biden has yet invest in Ohio, with 18 Electoral College votes and Georgia with 16 votes. Biden is well positioned to force Trump to double down in states the President needs to reach 270.
According to the Texas Tribune, the Biden campaign recently made a mid-six figure buy focused on coronavirus in Texas, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, battleground states experiencing a surge in new Covid-19 cases.
The Biden team’s relatively small buy in Texas will force Trump to spend heavily to compete for the Lone Star State’s 38 Electoral College votes. Trump can’t afford to ignore Biden’s foray into Texas. It’s a perfect trap set to unnerve an impulsive incumbent.
Texas remains a dead heat with the RCP average giving Trump a scant 0.2% edge. As reported in our last blog, Biden hits 270 votes if he carries all the 232 Electoral College votes for Hillary Clinton plus Texas. Game over!
The President’s unanswered ads in Ohio and Georgia, and his competing ads with Biden in other states, have yet to show any effect at stopping his slide in the polls. It didn’t help that one of the President’s “law and order” attack ads featured a 2014 photo in Ukraine of police fighting with pro-democracy demonstrators.
Biden’s battleground strategy is working. The RCP average has the former Vice President up 7.8% in Florida, 8.4% in Michigan, 6.7% in Pennsylvania and 6% in Wisconsin. Biden has had small yet consistent leads in Arizona +4% and North Carolina +3%.
If Biden garners Clinton’s 232 states, a very likely scenario, Florida’s 29 Electoral College votes would leave him only 9 votes short of 270. In this scenario, Biden would only need to win just one of the following battleground states where he is up by at least 6 points — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or one of the closer states of North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Ohio — to break 270.
Winning Florida plus Iowa’s 6 votes (Trump +1.5) and one vote each from Maine’s 2nd CD and Nebraska’s 2nd CD would put Biden at 269.
Record Numbers of Early and Absentee Voting Expected
There are very few paths for Trump to get to 270. The President needs to run the tables in virtually every battleground state. He is wasting opportunities and running out of time. Early voting starts in 53 days in Minnesota with many battleground states like Michigan following shortly thereafter.
Changes making it easier to vote-by-mail have opened access to absentee balloting in every battleground state except Texas. The Washington Post 76% of voters have access to vote by mail has an informative piece with maps and charts detailing vote by mail regulations and the percent of voters using absentee ballots.
Democrats and Independents favor absentee voting. Trump’s Republican base are following his lead in opposing vote-by-mail. Absentee votes should be expected to strongly support Biden. If signs point to a rout, Trump risks losing some of his base to lower turnout on Election Day. Democrats down ticket, from Congress to State Legislatures to City Councils, could reap the benefits that come with winning in a redistricting year.
Up to 60% of votes are expected to be cast by mail — an enormous surge in absentee voting — which will lead to delays of up to several weeks in ballot counting. There may be so many states already off the board and in Biden’s corner, that the delay will be meaningless. It could also result in a slow, painful and devastating electoral defeat for the President who failed America.
Scott Adams is Creative Executive Director of award winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.
