Iowa Code Blue — No Time to Panic
As the pundits call for the end of the Iowa Caucuses as the nation’s kickoff contest for the Presidential nomination race, one thing will not change. Each precinct elected real, live delegates and alternatives to the next event, County Conventions. These people have names, contact info and are either committed to a candidate, or in some cases the product of non-viable supporters cobbling together viability for uncommitted.
For instance, if a precinct awarded 3 delegates to Sanders, 3 delegates to Warren and 1 delegate to Buttigieg — those results will not change. It is more than a paper backup — it is real live people.
While the media, the President and those who dislike Iowa going first, are talking about a meltdown and fiasco, it’s a simple coding failure by the software proprietor “Shadow.” Right now, you can’t even say “Only the Shadow Knows.”
The integrity of the process is not at stake — simply the process of collecting and disseminating the results. You cannot “hack” real people who were selected to the next phase. It’s at the next stage, the county convention, where delegates are selected to the Congressional and State Conventions — where Iowa’s 41 national delegates are awarded.
Unlike the Republican winner take all system, Democrats award delegates based on proportionality. The media wants a clear winner, but in fact the race is for delegates. The delegate count will be preliminary from the caucuses and likely end up showing a negligible advantage for any of the likely top three finishers — Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg.
One result worth watching, is which candidates gained the most ground after the initial first round. The second round to be reported takes into account those caucus attendees whose candidates were not viable, and had to go to their second choice.
What is concerning, is the reported low caucus turnout — showing 2016 numbers rather than the record turnout of 2008. The number of new first time caucus attendees dropped. Is that bad news for Sanders who was relying on a record turnout of new people? Or did undecided people simply decide to stay home?
In a lower turnout caucus, the advantage generally goes to the best organized field programs who turn out their dedicated supporters. That should still benefit Sanders and Warren’s vaunted field operation. Buttigieg should benefit as well.
Does the low turnout in Iowa, after tens of millions of dollars spent, portend for low turnout in upcoming primaries and caucuses? Who benefits from lower turnout? A Bloomberg already owning the traditional and social media ad wars? Or a grassroots field based operation in giant Super Tuesday states like California and Texas?
The Democratic Presidential nominating process is a lot like making sausage. It can be ugly and tough to watch. But in the end, real people emerge as delegates to select their party’s nominee.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director of the Pollie Award Winning Green Alley Strategies www.greenalleystrategies.com. He’s a veteran organizer of caucuses and was elected a national delegate for Jerry Brown in 1992.
