Iowa Caucus — The Head or the Heart
For Iowa caucus goers, it’s the internal battle between the head and the heart. Attendees are famous for looking beyond their state’s parochial interests in picking a candidate whom they think can win in November.
Iowa Caucus
First the weather and a primer on the Iowa caucus. It’s been unseasonably warm in Iowa the day before the caucuses. Advantage to campaigns with a massive field operation of door knockers — Sanders and Warren. It’s going to rain, sleet and snow on caucus day. Again advantage to field.
There are 41 delegates to the national convention at stake which are awarded at both the Congressional District and Statewide. The precinct caucuses are the first step in awarding delegates. They are comprised of first timers and experienced attendees who organize to ensure their candidate gets the most delegates possible.
Some caucuses are small town or neighborhood affairs where most people are familiar with each other and Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Biden may do better. Others are located on college campuses where attendance surges and Sanders and Warren are expected to do quite well, and where Andrew Yang should find viability.
If a candidate does not attain the viability threshold of 15%, those attendees have choices. Go home, go in masse to a viable candidate or disperse to your viable second choice. It’s difficult for campaigns to cut deals at the statewide level about joining one another based on viability and have caucus attendees follow that direction. What is more likely is precinct operatives cut deals with non-viable candidate caucuses and offer a deal to that group if they commit to the viable candidate.
The Iowa Democratic Party will report three numbers. Initial support on round one, backing after people move to join a viable caucus and the expected number of delegates campaign’s earn. A well-organized precinct operation could increase their delegate count — a 10% increase statewide after round one could potentially add 4 national delegates.
Head or the Heart
Every time Democratic primary and caucus voters get sucked into the “moderate” versus “progressive” debate they lose. When Democrats played it safe and nominated with their heads — they picked Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry and Hillary Clinton. When they were inspired to go with their hearts, and took a chance on candidates with both downsides and upsides, they elected Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. All but Dukakis (Dick Gephart 1988) and Bill Clinton (Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin 1992) won Iowa. We don’t have the gifted oratory skills of the last two Democratic presidents, but we do have candidates who appeal to the head or the heart.
There is very little daylight on issues between candidates running for the Democratic nomination. While Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are on the aspirational side of Medicare for All, all the other candidates have policies that move in that direction. They’ll all appoint White House staff, Cabinet members and Under-Secretaries who will undo the disastrous four years of Trump. We’ll get Judges who are qualified to serve. The candidates all value science, know the threat posed by climate change and unlike the President actually understand the significance of historical events.
Front runner Joe Biden appeals to the head as the one best suited to return our country to normalcy. Sanders and Warren appeal to the heart with a change vision for the future, as do Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar albeit with a different message. While not competing in Iowa, Mike Bloomberg appeals to the head in a different way — his self-funded, well-staffed and poll heavy campaign is showing how best to troll Trump.
Any of these six candidates can beat Trump — they simply have different ways to do it.
Candidates from the heart have the inspiration upside dynamic. Sanders has a massive online fundraising operation and growing following amongst voters under 45. He’ll have to make inroads with older voters to win the nomination and the general election, but is poised to grab back some of Trump’s white working class base.
Warren has support across all age demographics. Her support amongst African American and Latinos exists yet trails her numbers with college educated whites. Warren’s plus side combines her hardscrabble roots with her “Plans.” Polling shows her at the top in favorability and as a second choice while having the lowest number of voters who would be disappointed if she were to become the nominee. Between her organization and appeal as a second choice, Warren may have the most to gain from attendees whose candidate does not meet the 15% viability threshold in round one.
If they have any chance of advancing out of Iowa, Midwesterners Buttigieg and Klobuchar must appeal to the heart more than the head. Buttigieg, who may be the best orator left, needs a top three finish to keep his momentum. Klobuchar, who offers voters a folksy yet no nonsense persona has to surge to become viable.
Candidates of the head, need the financial resources to win the Electoral College. Biden’s challenge in the primaries is fundraising and holding on to a lead, while his general election obstacle will be motivating young voters.
Bloomberg is betting on most candidates coming out of the four early states without the financial resources to compete with his already heavy rotation in Super Tuesday states. Voters may see Bloomberg as the best person to get under Trump’s very thin skin — he’s richer, self-made and shows how to troll Trump in a video with the President crawling on all fours on a golf course https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OOfDF8_TE8&feature=youtu.be.
Democrats need to keep their eye on the prize.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director of Green Alley Strategies — www.greenalleystrategies.com. He organized the Minnesota precinct caucus operation for Paul Wellstone’s underdog victory in 1990 and was a national delegate for Jerry Brown in 1992.
