How Will the Dice Roll in Nevada?
February 19, 2020
By Scott Adams
Nevada brings us back to the caucuses, where the reporting results to news media will no doubt be problematic. However, much like Iowa, real people supporting candidates will be elected delegates to the next level in the national delegate selection process. Delegates selected out of precincts will reflect which campaigns are best organized for caucuses and have the ability to persuade non-viable attendees to go for a second or third choice.
For a change this cycle, early caucus turnout is high and first time participants were running close to 50% of the total early votes cast. This has got to be good news for Sanders and other campaigns with a ground game. Likely does not bode well for Joe Biden.
There have only been two post New Hampshire primary polls in Nevada. ( Las Vegas Review Journal Poll & Data for Progress Poll ) Polls show Bernie Sanders crushing it at 30%, winning by a huge margin with Latino voters (up to 66% in Data for Progress poll) and those supporting Medicare for All. The real race in Nevada is for place and show, 2ndand 3rd. Will the powerful Culinary Workers union aggressive non-endorsement impact the caucuses? Does the union’s defense of bargained health care benefits and the Bernie Bros subsequent counter attack make any difference?
Joe Biden’s once formidable national and Nevada lead is gone. His February Nevada polling average is 16% with Elizabeth Warren at 14.5%. Closely behind are Pete Buttigieg at 12.5%, Tom Steyer 10.5% and Amy Klobuchar 9.5%. Sanders will be viable throughout the state, while the other five candidates have varying chances of reaching viability. What happens between the first and second round of caucus voting, and which candidates benefit more than others, could hold keys to what the race will look like entering Super Tuesday.
The betting odds on which candidates will still be running post Super Tuesday are on Sanders, with his grassroots funding and current high 20% support, and on Michael Bloomberg, who has the resources and is now leading in Florida and Oklahoma and tied with Sanders in North Carolina and Virginia. If this week’s back and forth between Sanders and Bloomberg is any indication, expect the two to engage and take up much of the oxygen in tonight’s debate.
Gang of Five
Realistically, there is room for only one of the Gang of Five, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Steyer and Klobuchar, to emerge as one of the final three candidates. These five candidates strangely have more in common with each other, than with either Sanders or Bloomberg. Given the dynamics of the caucus, the Nevada debate may cement the critical second and third choices. Caucuses give us a real time picture of voter preferences, allowing for quantitative tracking of movement to secondary choices.
While Bernie may pick up some support as candidates in the Gang of Five drop out, the real battle coming into Super Tuesday will be whether surviving candidates in the Gang gain or whether those supporters migrate to Bloomberg.
Biden ditched New Hampshire to say the nomination will be decided in part by the 98% of Black and Brown voters who have yet to participate. But the former Vice-President, an older white male, got as he would say shellacked in overwhelming white, suburban and rural towns and counties in Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden needs a second place Nevada finish, and that is not a given, to have any shot at the nomination. If he falls to third or worse, all eyes will be on where older African-American voters go in South Carolina and then on Super Tuesday. Will there be a noticeable break by age and gender to remaining candidates? Do survivors in the Gang of Five benefit, or has Bloomberg’s ad onslaught and personal outreach given him an opening?
Steyer may just be the candidate who knocks off a diminished Biden and then exits the race. Steyer is competitive in Nevada and only slightly behind Sanders and Biden in South Carolina. Change Research’s poll, a firm that has a track record of accuracy in crowded primaries, has Sanders and Biden tied at 23% in the Palmetto State, with Steyer at 20% and Buttigieg surging into viability at 15%. Hard to see where Steyer goes after South Carolina.
Warren, at least by the current Nevada polls is best positioned to finish in second if Biden falters. National polls continue to show Warren doing well on favorability and as a second choice. A strong finish could but her in the game to win over her co-horts’ followers. Warren’s strategy of being the uniter in the race, one who can appeal to all wings of the party is backed up in polling. It’s not only a smart tactic, it is her only hope. With Bloomberg on the debate stage, and all candidates looking to get their chops in, going after Bloomberg is a safe way to attack and unite.
Buttigieg has over performed in the early states in part due to a well-run campaign, an understanding of the power of messaging and an ability to use his oratory skills to break out. But his problem, as a Gang of Five member, is maintaining his momentum in more unfriendly terrain, though he is making a move in South Carolina. He’ll need to find a way to grow on the second round of caucusing, which means he has to become viable in a majority of precincts. He is not there yet. His other problem is on Super Tuesday a mayor from a slightly larger town than South Bend will be on the ballot. Expect Mayor Pete to take some shots at the other mayor tonight.
Klobuchar who loves proclaiming she punches above her weight, is the over achiever in the race. A solid debater who can be expected to continue her run by landing some blows tonight on Bloomberg. Attacking Bloomberg is part survival skill and part winning over second and third choice voters. Klobuchar and Warren may ultimately be in competition for second and third choice caucus votes.
Caucus Polling Data — What to Watch
The Data for Progress Nevada poll shows Warren and Klobuchar tied in the lead for second choice at 20% with Buttigieg at 16%. Klobuchar is strongest with “moderate” older, white voters, while Warren is best with younger, “very” liberal voters, particularly Latino and African-American. Interestingly, Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg share the same level of second choice support with “somewhat” liberal voters, the intersection between progressives and moderates. But Buttigieg trails Klobuchar and Biden on moderate second choices and Klobuchar and Warren amongst “very” liberal voters. Warren is the clear winner on third choice at 24%.
As second choice, Warren and Klobuchar have real gender and age differentials. Warren’s support is 24% male/16% female and 36% under age 45/13% over age 45. Conversely, Klobuchar is 15% male/24% female and 9% under age 45/24% over age 45.
For caucus goers who have made up their mind, the strength of Sanders is evident: 71% of voters under 45 are set with their choices compared to an even split of 46–45% of voters over age 45 who are persuadable. Men are more firm with their choice at 56–35% compared to women at 51–43%.
If Klobuchar is able to surge into viability, she would likely be in position to gain on Warren in the second choice competition, and likely put Warren on the ropes. Klobuchar’s second choice voters are more likely to come from people backing other Gang of Five candidates, including Warren.
Warren, whose second choice voters fall squarely in Sanders demographics is going to need to be viable in a majority of precincts in order to register gains among “somewhat” liberal caucus attendees. If she struggles to be ahead of her Gang of Five cohorts for viability, her second and third choice strengths will not matter. Yet, if Klobuchar struggles, Warren could be in decent shape to pull in the Minnesota senator’s backers.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at Award-Winning Green Alley Strategies www.greenalleystrategies.com
