Georgia — Democrats Turn Out Votes, Republicans Turn On Each Other

By Scott Adams

In all elections, but especially in lower turnout runoffs and specials, campaigns need to avoid distractions, stay on message and keep always move forward with GOTV operations. Going sideways once early and absentee voting starts can be disastrous. Lost time and muddled messaging are the death knell of campaigns.

Of the four candidates in the runoff, only one has won election — Republican Senator David Perdue. Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, who has lost one close race in a Congressional special election in a swing district, is perhaps the most skilled and flawless candidate for the Democrats in the 2020 cycle. The ever disciplined Ossoff is always on message.

Ossoff nailed the Fox News live ambush interview on December 30th (you may need to copy and paste the link):

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1344443912795131908

Kelly Loeffler, the appointed Republican Senator has never won an election and finished second in November to first time candidate Democrat Raphael Warnock. Warnock, the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, the Reverend Martin Luther King’s former church, is a gifted orator. Warnock has been attacked as an anti-American socialist but has deftly used humor and his oratory prowess to stay on message.

But Perdue is now quarantined under Covid protocols just days before the runoff. The Republican base is being yanked back and forth with President Trump’s claims of a stolen election and voter fraud in Georgia. Perdue and Loeffler have backed Trump’s call to fire Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger for certifying the election results, the same election that propelled the two Senators to the runoff.

The prominent pro-Trump lawyer Lon Wood has called for Perdue and Loeffler to be arrested. Trump’s visits to Georgia are filled with grievances, baseless claims of a stolen election and attacks on Republican Governor Brian Kemp and the Secretary of State. This takes the cake on innovative ways to inspire the Republican base in a low turnout election.

When the stimulus bill was being debated, Ossoff and Warnock pushed their opponents to support the $2000 pandemic payments to everyone. Only after Trump held up the bill with calls to raise the payments from $600 to $2000, did Perdue and Loeffler join in support, albeit with caveats.

Perdue and Loeffler have a problem. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has refused to hold a vote and called those $2000 payments “socialism” in response to Bernie Sanders ploy to force a vote on the universal payments. Georgia voters see the only thing standing between them and $2000 is Mitch McConnell. With Mitch gone as majority leader, all Georgians will get $2000. A vote for Warnock and Ossoff will do that.

I agree with Nate Silver that if the race is decided by razor thin margins, we could see a split decision — with Warnock and Perdue emerging as winners. But the momentum created by the always on message campaigns of Warnock and Ossoff, plus the early voting results, point to a possibility of double Democratic wins greater than 1% each.

In a lower turnout election, banking early votes gives Warnock and Ossoff a more significant edge than in a General Election. It’s never good to play catch up in a low turnout runoff election.

Early Voting Data — Good News for Democrats, Catch Up for Republicans

The early voting results point to a solid lead for Warnock and Ossoff.

In November, 4,935,487 Georgians (65% of registered voters) cast a vote for either President-elect Biden or Trump.

As of January 1, 2021, www.georgiavotes.com reports that 3.001 million Georgians have cast a vote in the runoff compared to 3.646 million Georgians who had cast their votes at this point in the November 2020 election. So far, 38.8% of registered voters have already cast their vote.

To date, the early votes cast in person and by absentee represent 82% of the votes cast at this point in the November 2020 election, a drop off of only 18%. In person early voting is overperforming absentee ballot returns. The drop off rate for in person voting is 16% while absentee voting is 21%.

It’s hard to know who if there is any statistical significance in outstanding absentee ballots — are they older, Republican leaning frequent absentee voters or Democrats? Most Democratic leaning counties are showing strong absentee performance, though Chatham (Savannah) and Henry Counties have room to improve.

Historically, Democrats have lost ground in runoffs compared to the General Election, in part due to low Democratic turnout. Given the new dynamic of the surge in early voting by Democrats, the Republican response will be telling.

In the 2018 Georgia runoffs for Secretary of State (SOS) and Public Service Commissioner (PSC), there was a 62% drop off in turnout from the 2018 General Election. The Republicans gained 3.4% in the SOS race and 1.4% in the PSC race.

In the last US Senate runoff in 2008, there was a 43% drop from the General Election.

For lower turnout elections, the significance of extraordinarily high early vote returns which strongly favor Democrats, give Warnock and Ossoff quantifiable advantages. They are banking hard to turnout votes.

The Democratic advantage, measured by the historically low drop off — only 18% fewer early votes cast in the runoff compared to those cast at this point in the November 2020 election — does not bode well for Perdue and Loeffler. Republicans are going to need a massive, record-level turnout for a runoff on Election Day to come from behind and win.

Georgia Runoff Early Returns by Demographics

38.8% of Registered Voters Have Cast Ballots

Women are 55.8% of the vote — good news for Democrats

Blacks are 30.8% of the vote — more good news for Democrats as the Black vote is overperforming November 2020 early vote by 3%.

Age 18–29–12% percent of the early vote, this number continues to increase as early votes come in. Increase due in part to surge in new registered voters in the runoff.

Age 30–39–11.4% of the early vote.

NON-VOTERS

115,389 Votes Cast by Non-Voters in November 2020 — Represent 3.8% of the early votes cast

Democrats are poised to make huge gains among this group of new voters in the runoffs. The results show large turnout by Blacks, other voters of color and young voters.

43,197 Blacks have cast early votes of this group of non-voters. Represents 4.7% of total Black vote

50,648 Whites have cast early votes of this group of non-voters. Represents 3.0% of total White vote.

Other non-voters casting early ballots include: 3,939 Latinos, 4597 Asians and 13,008 identified as other.

Young voters have surged in this non-voting category, powered by voters who turned 18 after November 3rd. 34,849 of voters age 18–29 have voted, representing 9.7% of voters in this age group.

14,703 of voters ages 30–39 have voted early, representing 4.3% of voters in this age group.

Day of Voters

112,608 votes have been cast early by voters who cast ballots on Election Day, November 3rd — 3.8% of early votes cast.

34,160 votes cast by Blacks, 62,564 votes cast by Whites, 2,387 cast by Asians and 9,769 cast by voters identifying as other. Latinos are overperforming in this group with 3,728 votes cast representing 5.5% of the total Latino vote.

The gender gap is relatively small, but there are still 5,000 more votes cast by women.

Early Returns by Select Counties

Democratic leaning counties, including the most populous counties, are overperforming Republican leaning counties when measured by:

Ranking of 159 Georgia Counties by Population and Partisan leanings
Turnout of registered voters performing over 38.8% stateside average (as of 1–1–21)
Percent of absentee ballots requested that have been turned in
Runoff early vote as percent of November 2020 early votes at this point in the election.

Statewide, 38.8% of registered voters have already cast ballots.

County, County Rank (Population/Party Lean), % Turnout of Registered Voters, % of Absentee Ballots Cast, % of Nov 20 early vote to date

Clayton, #5 Pop/#1 Dem, 37.2%, 74%, 82.7%

DeKalb, #4 Pop/#2 Dem, 47%, 72%, 81.4%

Hancock, #136 Pop/#3 Dem, 45.6%, 81%, 85.8%

Fulton, #1 Pop/#4 Dem, 43%, 65% ,78.6%

Gwinnett, #2 Pop/#31 Dem, 42.6%, 76%, 75.9%

Cobb, #3 Pop/#36 Dem,41.2%, 81%, 69.8%

Clarke, #19 Pop/#7 Dem, 39.9%, 77%, 76.1%

Chatham, #6 Pop/#21 Dem, 29%, 56.5%, 66.1%

Henry, #9 Pop/#26 Dem, 41.6%, 48%, 69.7%

Muskogee, #12 Pop/#18 Dem, 38.5%, 70%, 76.7%

Bibb, #16 Pop/#19 Dem, 34.5%, 70%, 73.4%

Douglas, #18 Pop/#20 Dem, 43.8%, 78%, 80.7%

Democratic turnout efforts in Newton (#23 Population/#34 Democrat) show that Blacks have cast 53% of the votes. The smaller Terrell County (#134 Population/#24 Democrat) shows Blacks casting 54.6% of the vote. Results in Newton and Terrell show there are few holes in the Democratic turnout operation.

One glaring weakness is Chatham County (Savannah) where turnout efforts may be boosted by a scheduled visit by Vice-President-Elect Kamala Harris.

Georgia’s largest counties — all Democratic strongholds — are overperfoming the statewide average on turnout of registered voters, on early turnout as percentage of votes cast in November and on number of requested absentee ballots turned in.

Trump Heads to Dalton (Whitefield County) for GOTV Rally

By all metrics, Whitefield County badly trails Democratic leaning counties. That’s why President Trump is headed to Dalton in the Republican stronghold of northern Georgia. Whitefish ranks 25th in population and it’s the 48th Republican leaning county. Only 31% (statewide average 38.8%) of registered voters have cast votes and early votes are only 68.4% (statewide average is 82%) of votes cast in November 2020 at this point in the election.

These troubling metrics are mirrored in many small, rural Republican leaning counties across the state. Republicans will need record turnout on January 5th to even match the robust Democratic early turnout.

While Republicans scramble to turnout huge numbers of voters, the incredibly well-oiled and effective Democratic operation will focus on a much smaller number of their base whom have yet to turnout.

Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director for award-winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com.