Early Returns in California Recall Bode Well for Newsom
Overperforming Democrats Have Nearly 2.5–1 Turnout Advantage Over Republicans
September 1, 2021 — With less than two weeks left before the September 14th Recall Election and 21% of ballots returned, Democrats have overperformed in early turnout by a nearly 2.5–1 margin over Republicans. Political Data Inc’s ballot tracker shows 2,500,798 Democratic ballots have been returned representing 54% of returned ballots, compared to 1,122,577 Republicans (24% of returned ballots) and 1,034,119 Independents (22% of returned ballots). In raw numbers, Republican turnout trails Democrats by nearly 1.4 million votes. 2021 Special Election Tracker | Political Data, Inc.
Democrats already have a nearly 2–1 advantage over Republicans amongst registered voters in California. Democrats are 46.5% of registered voters, with Independents (No Party Preference — NPP) following at 29.4%, and Republican trailing at 24%. Early polls were worrisome for Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and recall opponents as Republican voters appeared more motivated than Democrats to turnout. The polls were a wake-up call for Democratic turnout operatives and served a useful purpose to engage less frequent voting Democrats.
With early returns representing 54% of the electorate, Democratic voters are overperforming their registered numbers (46.5%) by a significant 7.5 points. Meanwhile, Republican turnout at 24% of early returns, simply matches its registered voter numbers of 24%. Republicans are neither overperforming or underperforming, but this is extremely troubling news for a party already trailing Democrats by 22.5 points among registered voters. The wild card in supporting the Recall could be Independent or NPP voters, but this group is underperforming in turnout compared to its registered numbers by 7.4 points.
The last three days of posted results have been consistent as an average of 3% of the electorate has been added to the count. The percentage of returned votes by party remained unchanged with Democrats at 54% of the vote, Republicans at 24% and Independents at 22%.
Another way to look at turnout is the percentage of voters by party whom have voted compared to overall early turnout of 21%. Given their huge advantage in party registration, Democrats are clearly building a lead that will be hard to overcome. Nearly a quarter of Democrats (24%) have already voted, compared to 21% of Republicans and 16% of Independents
Pro-Recall organizers have claimed that their recall petition signatures needed to qualify for an election gives them a lead of 2 million votes. It is an increasingly hollow argument.
Recall is a Vote-By-Mail Election — Early and Election Day Polling Locations are Limited — Obstacles to Election Day Voting
The Recall Election is Vote-By-Mail with the option to drop off ballots at collection centers or mail in a ballot. Those who want to vote in person can do so at the limited early voting/election day locations. Local precinct Election Day voting locations are non-existent. Very few voters will be able to walk to the polls. It will take cars, rides or transit to get to a location. Most mid-sized towns will have only one or two vote centers. A larger city like Long Beach (population 467,000) has only seven early/election day voting centers.
Republicans, already behind by 1.4 million votes or a 2.5–1 margin, need to overperform by extraordinary and historically never attained margins to begin to close the gap. The early returns for Republicans continue to be static at 24% of the votes cast.
The much-hyped claim that Republicans will vote on Election Day faces severe obstacles for infrequent voting Republican. They don’t trust the mail, but have a mail-in ballot. Their local precinct voting location will not be open. These are self-inflicted turnout obstacles that could suppress the Republican vote.
Turnout Demographics By Age and Race/Ethnicity
Overperforming — White voters, representing 58% of the electorate and voters over 65 at 23% of the electorate, are overperforming their registered numbers respectively by 11 points and 17 points. Turnout for voters 65+ appears to be leveling off.
Underperforming — Latino voters who represent 27% of the electorate are underperforming by 10 points.
Voters 18–34, the largest block of voters by age at 27.6% of the electorate are underperforming by 13.6 points. Latest turnout results for voters 18–34 shows a slight uptick.
Voters 35-, 24% of the electorate, underperform by 6 points.
Average Performing — Asian-Americans at 11.7% and African-Americans at 3.3% of the electorate are turning out at rates equal to their registration numbers.
Voters 50–64, 25.5% of the electorate, are slightly above average and overperforming by 2.5 points.
Recent Polling –Good for Newsom, Bad for Elder’s Republican Challengers, Two Lesser-Known Democrats Emerge as Top Contenders
Two recent polls Change Research (Aug 22–25) California Survey Memo (changeresearch.com) (Yes Recall 42%/No Recall 57%) and Survey USA (August 26–28) Poll Report (surveyusa.com) (Yes Recall 43%/No Recall 51%) show the Recall being defeated. Republican Larry Elder leads both polls with 27% of the vote in the 46-candidate field. A simple plurality wins on Question Two on who replaces Gavin Newsom if Question One on the Recall passes.
Side note: Readers of this blog may remember that data from a Change Research poll was used to accurately predict (though few pundits believed it at the time) a Lori Lightfoot/Toni Preckwinkle one-two finish in the 2019 Chicago Mayoral Primary.
In spite of the media’s obsession with a Republican horserace and debate stages for Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, former Governor candidate Jon Cox and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, two Democrats have tied or passed all but Elder in the two polls.
Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a YouTube and real estate advisor is in second with 6% and Democrat Jackie McGowan, a Cannabis policy advisor is third at 5% (Full Disclosure — Green Alley Strategies is advising the McGowan for Governor campaign). The Change Research poll has Paffrath and McGowan ahead of the Republican challengers. The Survey USA poll has seven candidates at 5–6% including all candidates listed above. Caitlyn Jenner is stuck at 1–2%.
Polls show nearly 40% of Democrats voting No on the Recall (Question One) plan to follow the Democratic Party’s and Gavin Newsom’s campaign strategy and leave Question Two blank. That leaves 60% of Democrats, or roughly over 30% of the electorate, looking for a Democratic alternative. Given that a majority of Democratic voters opposed to the recall are looking for a candidate to vote for on for Question Two, either or both Paffrath and McGowan could emerge as late threats to Elder.
McGowan is the only major candidate who urges voters to Vote No on the Recall, supports mask and vaccine mandates and would follow CDC guidelines on COVID-19. She has not yet been invited to a top tier debate and has only recently begun to move up in the polls.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director for Green Alley Strategies www.greenalleystrategies.com.
