Donald and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week
Followers of this blog know we were early predictors of a potential Electoral College rout. We’ve talked about Trump’s team squandering valuable time as the campaign fumbles every opportunity to move forward. Campaigns that move sideways lose their message and purpose and fall further behind.
It’s always a challenge for a political campaign has to keep the candidate focused and pleased. With a narcissist and serial Tweeter like Trump, who blames everyone, fails to lead and goes off script, it’s an impossible task.
Trump started 2020 from a position of strength. The Democratic field was crowded and Trump had built a formidable digital organizing and fundraising operation. He was set to run on jobs and the economy. Six months later, the Trump campaign is a floundering, listless disaster.
Who would have thought that Tik Tok Twerking Teens could pull a deep fake on the outrageously overpaid, and possibly short lived Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale. For the week leading up to the Tulsa indoor arena rally, the President and his team were bragging about over one million people RSVPing for the rally. These kids got the President’s team to violate the cardinal campaign rule — never ever raise crowd size expectations you can’t meet nor host a campaign rally in a venue you can’t fill.
The campaign scrambled to set up an outdoor overflow space once the 19,000 capacity arena hit its capacity limit. Twenty people would be a generous overflow count. Inside, the Tulsa Fire Department estimated the crowd at under 6,200. For statistic geeks, that’s a turnout rate of 0.62%. It could have been the fine print of the Covid-19 lawsuit waver that scared people away? Sadly, two campaign staffers who attended the rally contracted Covid-19, joining six advance team staffers who were diagnosed before the rally.
Parscale says 300,000 legitimate Republicans signed up and they screened out the Tik Tok posers. Huh? His boss was bragging about 1 million attendees and they set up an outdoor event to handle an overflow crowd of tens of thousands, complete with a jumbo screen and scheduled speeches by Vice President Pence and Trump.
Taking no responsibility for an epic rally failure, Parscale blamed violent protestors — there were none — for scaring away attendees. Was Parscale referring to local residents seen placing a tarp over the “Black Wall Street” memorial? Those Tulsa based protestors were preventing Pence from having a Juneteenth photo op in front of the site commemorating the 1921 massacre of African-Americans by a white mob.
Trump’s Weak Weeks Keep Adding Up — Trump Scoreboard June 14–21
The Tik Tok deke was the perfect teen prank to end an already terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week* for Trump. Trump, already reeling from his dismal response to Covid-19 — deny it, the economic crisis — ignore it, and Black Lives Matter protests — attack it, had just experienced a disastrous run. See last week’s blog Another Lost Week Ends for Trump. As bad as it has been, this past week was arguably worse.
· Fundraising — Lost: Joe Biden and the DNC outraised Donald Trump and the RNC by $6.8 million, $80.8 million to $74 million.
· Supreme Court — 3 Losses: 1) Lost attempt to stop employment protections for LGBTQ, 6–3 with Trump appointee Neil Gorsuch writing majority opinion; 2) Lost attempt to end Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) 5–4 with Chief Justice Roberts writing majority opinion protecting immigrant kids; 3) Lost appeal to throw out California’s Sanctuary law 7–2, with Trump appointees Brett Kavanaugh and Gorsuch voting in majority.
· John Bolton’s Book — Lost: Court denies Trump Department of Justice attempt to ban Bolton’s book “The Room Where It Happened.”
· Facebook — Lost: Facebook removes Trump campaign Facebook post with Nazi symbol.
· Twitter — Lost: Twitter flagged and took down a video Trump tweeted for violating the company’s policy. The doctored video of white and African American toddlers hugging and running used a fake CNN chyron with “Todler” misspelled.
· Coronavirus Testing — Lost: Trump claimed at Tulsa rally to have ordered health officials to “…slow the testing down please. They test and they test…”
· Confederate Statues — Lost: Trump’s continued defense of Confederate statues has not slowed down removal of these statues including at the U.S. Capitol and in Richmond VA.
· Attorney General for Southern District of New York — Lost: Attorney General William Barr’s attempted Friday night sacking of SDNY AG Geoffrey Berman, a 2018 Trump appointee, could not have gone worse. The controversy, and media coverage dragged into Tulsa rally Saturday as Berman refused to quit and showed up for work. Berman’s response required Barr to go to Trump to fire Berman, though Trump denied doing the deed. In the end, the process leading to Berman’s firing prevented Barr from temporarily filling the AG slot with New Jersey AG Craig Carpenito. Carpenito apparently told his staff that he only agreed to take the job because Barr told him Berman resigned on his own volition. Instead, Berman’s hand-picked top assistant, Audrey Strauss, a prosecutor with a distinguished record of integrity — and a Democrat — will likely serve out the year as Acting AG. Among the SDNY current cases is an investigation into Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani.
· Battleground State Polls — Losing, losing, losing…:
o Trump continues to trail in this week’s battleground polls in Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump and Biden are tied in North Carolina.
o Minnesota, once Trump’s top pick up state target — remember the pre-pandemic Minneapolis rally — is rapidly moving out of reach. Trump’s “law and order” mantra is repelling Minnesota voters who live in the epicenter of protests for justice following the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. A June 20 Gravis poll has Biden trouncing Trump in Minnesota by 16 points 58–42%.
o Trump also trails badly in his other pick up targets, New Mexico (down 14 points) and New Hampshire (down 7 points).
o Iowa, which Trump won by 9 points in 2016, is no longer a safe state for Trump. The highly respected Des Moines Register poll (June 15) has Trump up 1 point over Biden 44–43%.
o Arkansas a statistical tie!!! The Talk Business/Hendrix College June 14 poll has Trump up 2 points, within the margin of error, 47–45%. This may very well be a one off as there has been little polling in Arkansas. But these results could signify growing trouble in deep red states. Trump should have Arkansas in the bag.
The Law of Diminishing Re-Sets
The election clock keeps ticking. Early voting starts in less than 90 days. Vote-by-mail ballots arrive in early October. There is every indication that the pandemic will influence how and when Americans logistically cast their vote. Most Americans outside the shrinking Trump bubble are worried about Covid, and taking precautions. Coronavirus outbreaks are surging in 23 states, many of which responded to Trump’s call to re-open.
The opportunities for another Trump re-set are diminishing. What kind of re-set is possible? Can the campaign stage new rally venues that satisfy the boss’ ego? Will Trump pivot away from “law and order” and “Confederate heritage” messages? Does Trump start embracing masks, testing and science?
We’re keeping our masks on and scorecard pencils sharpened.
Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at award winning Green Alley Strategies, www.greenalleystrategies.com
* Inspired by a family favorite children’s book Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day.
