Dead Heat in Virginia — Are the Polls Right?

By Scott Adams

The last two weeks of polling in the Virginia Governor’s race shows a dead heat between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin. Real Clear Politics polling average gives Youngkin a scant 0.9% lead. The race will be decided on turnout and whose base is more enthusiastic. It comes down to field operations.

Polling firms — Non-Partisan, Democratic and Republican — are grappling with how polls could be so wrong in 2020 in states like Iowa and Montana. While pollsters for the most part got it right in Arizona, Georgia and Virginia, a troubling trend developed.

In the 2020 cycle, Democrats were far more enthusiastic about answering polls. On the other hand, white, non-college Trump supporters had a significantly high refusal rate on answering polls. Even after making adjustments to enthusiasm on the Democratic side and refusals on the Republican side, pollsters continued to misjudge voter support in Presidential, statewide and Congressional races.

The high number of people who had already voted early or through absentee further complicated 2020 polling. These early voters, who leaned heavily Democratic, had a noticeable uptick in refusing to divulge whom they voted out of privacy concerns.

What does that mean for the Virginia polls? Are white, non-college educated 2020 Trump voters refusing to answer polls? If yes, that’s good news for Youngkin. Will these Trump voters turn out on November 2nd without the former President on the ballot in a historically low turnout election? If they don’t turnout, that’s great news for McAuliffe.

On the Democratic side, turning out base odd year base voters and increasing turnout of less frequent voters is McAuliffe’s path to victory. Are the polls over-capturing Democratic enthusiasm to answer polls and missing a less motivated Democratic voting base? If yes, good news for Youngkin. Or are Democrats less enthusiastic about answering polls but still likely to back McAuliffe and show up early and at the polls to vote? If yes, good news for McAuliffe.

The Emerson (Oct 22–23) poll has a dead heat among likely voters. Youngkin has a 10.6 point edge among likely voters who have not yet voted but say they are very likely to vote. This set of voters represented 75% of poll respondents. Among voters who said they already have cast their ballots (25% of poll respondents), McAuliffe has a nearly 2–1 advantage 65–34%. Youngkin leads with men, voters over 50 years old and whites. McAuliffe leads with women, voters under 50 and African Americans and Asians. They are tied with the Latino vote. Nine percent of Democrats and voters who backed Joe Biden are voting for Youngkin.

A Fox News (Oct 24–27) poll shows Youngkin leading by 8 points among likely voters. Youngkin has a 1 point lead among registered voters. This poll represents a 13 point swing to Youngkin since Fox’s Oct 10–13 poll. Youngkin has a 10 point edge in voters who are extremely interested, has surged with voters concerned about education and erased any advantage McAuliffe had on response to COVID-19.

Early and Absentee Ballots Cast

The Virginia Department of Elections website posts different data on returned absentee ballots. One page shows statewide raw number returns. A second page shows percentage returns by County/City or by Congressional District, without raw numbers.

Through October 29th, there have been 398,498 absentee ballots requested with 66% or a 262,717 returned absentee ballots.

To date, 1,080,443 early and absentee ballots have been cast. Compared to this point in 2020, roughly 1 million fewer early and absentee ballots have been cast. The 2021 early and absentee votes surpasses 2017’s early turnout of 195,634 votes by at least a 5–1 ratio.

The percentage of returned absentee ballots in key Democratic Congressional Districts trails Republican Districts. The Democratic strongholds of Northern Virginia (CDs 8, 10 & 11) and Southeast Virginia (CDs 3 & 4) show absentee ballot returned statistics ranging from 57% to 64%.

Conversely, in the three heavily Republican districts of Western Virginia (CDs 5, 6 & 9) the percentage of returned absentee ballots ranges from 66–71%.

The returned absentee ballots data is subject to change and not conclusive. Are election boards in Democratic leaning and highly populated counties not able to keep up with returned ballots? Are election boards in Republican leaning counties receiving a relatively low number, but high percentage of returned absentee ballots?

Democrats still need to get their base of absentee voters to cast their votes — in person, by mail, via dropboxes or on Election Day AND turn out lower motivated voters.

Republicans appear to be holding their own on getting their absentee voters to return ballots. The Republican turnout challenge pivots to Election Day Trump voters without the former President on the ballot.

If the polls are right, it could be a nail biter. It’s all about the field.

Scott Adams is Executive Creative Director at award-winning Green Alley Strategies www.greenalleystrategies.com.